Kadyrov's death won't bring immediate change to Chechnya — political expert

Political expert Oleksandr Antoniuk expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.

"Regarding Kadyrov, this isn't about stability in the region, but about loyalty to the Kremlin in maintaining power in Chechnya. However, in Chechnya, or rather in Ichkeria, there is no formula for succession. It will be the Kremlin itself that determines who in that Caucasus region will be the successor and representative of Kremlin policy. With all that said, I think that after Kadyrov's death, we can hardly expect any sharp changes. But in the medium term, such processes may begin," the political expert commented.

According to him, opposition forces in Ichkeria currently have insufficient opportunities to assert themselves, considering the regime that exists there today.

"First of all, the Chechen people themselves remember well what the Russian boot on their land means, and this hasn't been forgotten in the population's mood. And in the medium term, political erosion—meaning the weakening of the Kremlin regime—will trigger processes that will create preconditions for internal confrontation, primarily between clans within Chechnya's power structures. I think this region risks becoming one of the core areas in destabilizing the Russian Federation. The period of the 1990s with shootouts is a reality that's happening there today, because in previous years we've already been able to observe several similar episodes," Antoniuk noted.

• In 2023, Ukrainian intelligence representative Andriy Yusov stated that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's illnesses had worsened.
• In May 2025, it became known that Kadyrov's deteriorating health had activated succession plans: among possible successors, he is considering his 17-year-old son Adam.
• On the night of December 25, Russian media reported that Kadyrov's health had sharply deteriorated and he was taken to hospital.
• In early January 2026, sources in Ukraine's Defense Intelligence confirmed that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's kidneys had failed. The Kremlin has already begun discussing his possible successors.