Iran regime faces growing threat as economic protests intensify across nation

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

For over a week, Iran has been gripped by protests driven by the country's deteriorating economic situation. Dramatic footage of demonstrators confronting Revolutionary Guards with flamethrowers, combined with statements from former President Trump, has prompted international media to seriously consider the possibility of regime collapse in Tehran.

The Times recently reported, citing intelligence sources, that Ayatollah Khamenei has allegedly prepared a contingency plan involving potential evacuation to Moscow for himself, his son, and close associates should the situation deteriorate further.

Assessing the likelihood of success or failure in protests against authoritarian regimes presents unique challenges. First, information barriers make it difficult to obtain a clear picture of events on the ground. Second, the entrenched nature of such regimes creates a persistent illusion of invincibility that, while often false, serves as a powerful psychological factor. Third, the combination of these elements makes it nearly impossible to accurately gauge regime resilience until tested by actual events.

The regime has shown signs of concern even before the current unrest. Throughout 2025, Iranian officials actively discussed relocating government quarters, a classic authoritarian response to perceived threats. Moving administrative buildings to less populated areas makes them easier to defend and maintain control over.

Three critical factors will determine the trajectory of these protests: the actual level of regime degradation, the existence of organized leadership prepared to fill any power vacuum, and the extent of external support. The latter includes both potential Chinese economic assistance to help the regime survive and possible informal backing from other nations for protesters.

The root cause remains Iran's prolonged economic crisis, which may worsen given recent developments in Venezuela, as Iran's shadow fleet has profited from servicing Venezuelan oil shipments to China. Whether Beijing provides sufficient economic support to the relatively loyal government remains an open question.

Within the existing power structure, moderates like Seyed Mohammad Sadr and his protégé, President Pezeshkian, represent the most likely faction to negotiate a new social contract. However, their preparations had been oriented toward a transition following Khamenei's natural death, not a forced power shift.

These protests could mark the tipping point for regime change, or they may simply join the list of previous demonstrations—like the 2025 trucker protests or the larger 2023 uprising—that ultimately failed to dislodge the government. What's certain is that the increasing frequency of unrest indicates deep institutional decay, where even extreme state violence no longer guarantees control. Whether this moment proves decisive remains to be seen.