Belarus’s economy on brink of default amid deepening ties with Russia — Ukrainian intel

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported the information.

According to their data, in the first half of 2025, Belarus’s GDP grew by only 2.1%, which is 2.9 percentage points lower than last year. At the same time, inflation in the country reached 7.3%.

“The decline is explained by a shock situation in agriculture (minus 8.1% year-on-year) and a decrease in demand for Belarusian goods in Russia, the key trading partner, which accounts for 60% of trade turnover. Deliveries of consumer goods, equipment, and lumber to Russia have dropped by more than 70%,” the intelligence service said.

Meanwhile, the foreign trade deficit from January to April increased to $856 million, exports decreased by 0.3%, and imports grew by 4.7%. Industrial production added only 0.3%, supported by domestic demand.

The Foreign Intelligence Service emphasizes that the stagnation of the Russian economy (minus 4% year-on-year in the first quarter) limits Minsk’s financial capabilities. The worsening balance of payments fuels the risk of a rapid devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, which would hit purchasing power and social stability.

In addition, Western sanctions are limiting diversification channels, further strengthening the structural dependence on Russian markets, logistics, and financing.

According to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, minimal growth rates will persist until the end of 2025 as a carryover from 2024. Ukrainian intelligence suggests that in 2026–2027, the crisis will intensify, with falling household incomes and further entrenchment of the Belarusian economy in Russia’s stagflationary orbit.

• Earlier, the self-proclaimed president of the Republic of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, acknowledged the shortage of the main Belarusian vegetable, which is the basis for many national dishes. This refers to potatoes (in Belarusian, “bulba”), the deficit of which was acutely felt in the country during the spring of 2025.