Russia may suffer record losses in Ukraine war in 2025 — UK intel

This is stated in the UK Defense Ministry’s report dated May 3.

UK intelligence has estimated Russia’s total losses since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 at approximately 950,000 killed and wounded.  

At the same time, in the first four months of 2025, Russia is estimated—according to the UK intelligence review—to have lost about 160,000 personnel.

“Should these causality rates persist for the rest of 2025, this would be the costliest year of the war in terms of Russian personnel, continuing the year-on-year trend of casualty increases,” the review states.  

It also notes that Russian losses in April 2025 remain on average lower than the very high daily rates at the end of 2024, but are still high in the overall context of the conflict.

“So far in 2025, Russia has not been able to translate continued heavy losses into significant advances in Ukraine,” the UK Defense Ministry concludes.

• The Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre believes that Russia is continuing a war of attrition and is depleting Ukraine's military resources, and there are no signs of preparations for a potential ceasefire.