“Key marker” for possible Ukraine ceasefire may come by April 30 — political scientist

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"Right now, Russia is trying to use the time window to normalize relations and strengthen Trump’s political position so it locks in a form that suits Russia. I wouldn’t rule out that by the end of this month, we’ll see a truce attempt at the front — a ceasefire that could fall apart two weeks after it’s announced," Sahakyan said.

According to him, Trump needs to show a serious win by April 30, which marks his 100th day in office. A ceasefire would be a strong card to play and could quiet the skeptics for a while.

"Putin is trying to offer Trump that win. Because if he doesn’t, then we can safely say that Putin is completely out of touch — miscalculating even in basic scenarios where you shouldn’t change the game last minute.

On top of that, May 9 is a big deal for Putin. He wants to hold a grand parade. With Trump in the spotlight and economic chaos and customs issues in the background, Putin needs to show he’s a symbol of stability and strength. And for that, he needs high-level guests to show up.

He’s already publicly inviting Xi Jinping, which means it’s not confirmed yet. I think China could easily say: if there’s no truce, how is Xi going to fly to Moscow? Ukrainian drones are already reaching the city, and it’s obvious they’ll organize their own kind of ‘parade’ that day. And once the ‘Carpet’ plan gets activated in Moscow, it’s hard to imagine Xi Jinping landing there — flying in while Ukrainian drones and missiles are heading toward the capital," Sahakyan stressed.

He also noted that Putin needs to secure closed airspace on May 9 so nothing messes up his "holiday."

"Between around April 28–30 and, say, May 10, I think it’s quite possible that Putin and Trump will reach a deal. But by May 10–11, Russia might break that truce. If this scenario plays out, the main signal will be a phone call between Putin and Trump. If they speak before April 30, it means they’ve agreed on a ceasefire. But Russia isn’t interested in long-term peace," Sahakyan concluded.

• Russian forces are once again attempting to land on the Dnipro islands and establish footholds for further advances, according to Serhii Bratchuk, spokesman for the Ukrainian Volunteer Army.
• Executive Director of the Institute of World Politics, Yevhen Mahda, said Donald Trump's recent statements should be assessed based on several key points.
• Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former Deputy Chief of Ukraine's General Staff, noted that the front is currently in an escalating phase.