ISW: Western tanks in Ukraine destroy Russia's ability to wage mechanized warfare

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

It is noted that over the year of the full-scale invasion, Russia lost about 50% of T-72B and T-72B3M tanks, as well as a large number of T-80s.

According to the UK Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace, two-thirds of Russian tanks have been destroyed or are unusable.

The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that the Kremlin likely recognizes that Russia’s low industrial output is a “critical weakness,” and that Russian production is not meeting the Kremlin’s long-term requirements.

Analysts recall that Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev called for increased production of weapons and modern tanks on February 9. The Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS) noted that Russia is still capable of producing large quantities of small arms, missiles, and tanks.

The Institute noted that some Russian defense firms continue to complain that they do not have sufficient personnel to support the intensified industrial effort, while Russian pro-war milbloggers noted that Russia needs to immediately embark on modernization and personnel recruitment efforts to solve issues with tank production.

Experts believe that such measures are unlikely to increase the Russian defense industry's ability to produce tanks quickly and on a large scale, and certainly not in time to affect the outcome of the current Russian offensive or Ukrainian counteroffensive.

"The timely Western provisions of tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine would further offset Russia’s ability to conduct mechanized warfare as Russia struggles to restart its defense production in the immediate term," the experts noted.

The ISW emphasized that Ukraine likely continues to have a window of opportunity to initiate large-scale counteroffensives over the next few months, but its ability to do so likely rests heavily on the speed and scale at which the West provides it the necessary materiel, particularly tanks and armored vehicles.

• On February 13, it became known that Poland had already handed over 250 T-72 tanks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and plans to send another 60. Ukraine will also receive 14 German Leopard tanks.

• Subsequently, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin listed the countries that are preparing to transfer Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. According to him, Germany, Poland, Canada, Portugal, Spain, Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands are working on the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks. The United States, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands are jointly transferring more than 90 T-72 tanks. And the UK is transferring Challenger main battle tanks.