ISW explains how Russia's heavy losses near Avdiivka will affect situation at frontline
Heavy losses of Russian equipment around Avdiivka are likely to undermine Russia's offensive potential in the long term
The Institute for the Study of War reports.
It is noted that since October 10, 2023, the Russian army has lost over 5,000 personnel and 400 armored vehicles near Avdiivka and Marinka.
"Satellite imagery has confirmed that the Russian military has lost at least 109 military vehicles, primarily armored fighting vehicles and tanks, near Avdiivika between October 10 and 20," the statement reads.
According to analysts, the Russian command has funneled additional forces to the Avdiivka front to offset heavy manpower losses and maintain the Russian military’s ability to sustain its ongoing offensive effort.
However, according to ISW, the Russian command will likely struggle to offset Russian equipment losses, particularly in armored vehicles.
The heavy losses and lack of Russian equipment in the first year of the full-scale invasion significantly limited Russia's ability to conduct effective mechanized maneuver warfare during the Russian offensive in the winter and spring of 2023, contributing to further losses during the disorderly mechanized assaults near Vuhledar, Donetsk region, in January and February 2023.
"Heavy losses around Vuhledar likely prevented the Russian command from committing to sustained mechanized assaults elsewhere in Ukraine later in the winter-spring 2023 offensive," ISW said.
They also emphasized that the recent losses of Russian equipment around Avdiivka appear to be much greater than those near Vuhledar.
"Recent Russian equipment losses around Avdiivka will likely lead to even more pronounced Russian equipment shortages and setbacks for any progress that the Russian military has made in addressing degraded mechanized maneuver warfare capabilities," the analysts explained.
On Thursday evening, Ukrainian Armed Forces officer Ihor Lapin said that the Russian Federation's immediate goal is to go beyond the railroad tracks in the northern part of Avdiivka and into the coke plant to set up a firing position there.