The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this.
Senior Kremlin officials continue to hold high-level meetings with the Belarusian leadership, which could create conditions for a Russian attack on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, although not necessarily in the coming weeks.
Analysts noted that “the most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus.” A new MDCOA of an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more likely.
The Institute reminds that the Russian troops currently stationed in Belarus undergo a training rotation and are redeployed to fight in eastern Ukraine. There is no observable indication that Russian forces in Belarus have the command and control structures necessary to attack Ukraine in the winter or spring of 2023.
“It seems more likely that Russian forces may be setting conditions for a new MDCOA of attacking Ukraine from Belarus in late 2023 given recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia and Belarus plan to conduct major exercises (Zapad 2023 and Union Shield 2023), likely in September 2023,” the expert say.
Thus, ISW adjusts its forecast, expecting a Russian attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus in late 2023. Analysts warn that this will be an entirely new and most dangerous plan of action, and the circumstances will be different.
“Russia will have completed the Autumn 2022 annual conscription cycle and be well into the Spring 2023 cycle, on the one hand, and may well have completed one or more additional reserve call-ups by Autumn 2023. A delayed timeline for this COA could allow Russia’s military industry to gear up sufficiently to provide a greater proportion of the necessary material for a renewed invasion from Belarus than Russia can provide this winter,” the ISW noted.
At the same time, Russian nationalist military bloggers continue to criticize the idea of Russian troops attacking Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.
Experts observe that Lukashenko continues to balance against the Kremlin, presenting Belarus as a sovereign state within the framework of the Russian-dominated Union State. Lukashenko's statement following the meeting with Lavrov says that he and Lavrov identified undefined areas of cooperation to preserve the sovereignty of the two countries in all relations.
This rhetoric is consistent with Lukashenko's long-standing efforts to avoid handing over Belarusian sovereignty to the Kremlin-dominated Union State structure, the Institute added.
Earlier, Ukrainian intelligence stated that talks about the threat of an invasion from Belarus are an attempt to pull the Ukrainian Armed Forces away from the front.
On January 16, the joint training of the aviation units of the armed forces of Belarus and Russia, which are part of the regional grouping of troops, began.
As of January 18, US intelligence did not find confirmation of preparations for an offensive by Russian forces on the territory of Ukraine from Belarus.