ISW predict conditions for Putin to start negotiations with Ukraine

This is the opinion of the Institute for the Study of War.

According to American analysts, to persuade Putin to enter negotiations on terms other than the achievement of all of his stated objectives, it will take not just one Ukrainian counteroffensive, but a successful series of them. 

"Ukrainian forces must show that they can do what Russian forces cannot, namely change the realities on the ground through military action. They must further damage Russian military power in Ukraine to the point at which it becomes clear to Putin and the inner circle that supports him in this war that the Russian armed forces cannot hope to improve the outcome of the war by continued fighting," ISW emphasized.

Experts have emphasized that multiple major Ukrainian operational-level victories are likely to play a role in creating the prospect of a negotiated settlement of the conflict or in forcing Putin to accept unfavorable military realities.

At the same time, US analysts emphasize that it is far from a fact that Putin will ever accept these military realities. He can choose to continue fighting, with or without a pause, for as long as necessary to achieve all of his goals.

"His rhetoric and actions, as well as his past patterns, certainly suggest this possibility. A negotiated settlement may therefore be unattainable because Putin will not accept the reality that he cannot actually conquer Ukraine. Ukraine and the West will have to create military realities that permit a cessation of hostilities," the ISW concluded.

• On March 21, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation stated that, in order to end the war, Moscow demands to stop the supply of Western weapons, to recognize the temporarily occupied territories as Russian and to confirm the non-aligned status of Ukraine.