ISW explains why Kremlin creates conditions for provocations on Ukraine's border and Moldova

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

"The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine," the statement says.

On February 23, the Operational Command North reported that intelligence had already recorded convoys of unmarked military equipment and personnel wearing uniforms similar to Ukrainian ones moving toward the border of Chernihiv region.

The North command explained that the purpose of these false flag operations is an attempt to accuse Ukraine's troops of violating the territorial integrity of an unspecified country, most likely referring to Belarus, analysts say.

"The Kremlin may be preparing false flag attacks to coerce Belarus into the war following Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's February 16 statement that Belarus would only enter the war if attacked by Ukraine. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense also notably claimed on February 21 that Belarusian forces observed a buildup of Ukrainian forces at its borders," the Institute said.

ISW continues to assess that Belarusian or Russian attack on northern Ukrainian regions is highly unlikely, but Russia seeks to force Lukashenko’s hand or blame Ukraine for expanding the war to undermine support for Kyiv. 

"Such a false flag operation could also aim to fix Ukrainian forces at the northern border in an effort to weaken Ukrainian defenses in eastern Ukraine and preparations for counter-offensive operations," experts believe.

The Kremlin also appears to be setting information conditions to stage a false flag operation in occupied Transnistria.

It is reminded that on February 23, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement that Ukrainian troops were allegedly planning to carry out an armed provocation against Transnistria in the near future. Russia claimed that Ukrainian forces would disguise themselves as Russian troops and allegedly launch an offensive in Transnistria. In turn, the Moldovan government denied the allegations.

"The MoD likely sought to foster this false narrative to twist Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky‘s warning to Moldovan President Maia Sandu that the Kremlin was preparing provocations in Moldova and his offer to help Moldova if Russian forces in Transnistria threaten the territorial integrity of Ukraine," the analysts added.

• On February 23, Ukrainian intelligence recorded the movement of unmarked military vehicles near the border with Chernihiv region.