ISW assess AFU's ability to "cut off" Crimea from mainland Russia

The Institute for the Study of War has come to this conclusion. 

The ISW notes that the Ukrainian military continues to respond to Western concerns about Ukraine's ability to liberate the occupied territories. In particular, Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Ukraine’s Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, said that Ukrainian troops would be ready for a counteroffensive in the spring of 2023, and that Ukraine's strategic goal is to divide the Russian front line between Crimea and mainland Russia.

The statement comes as Western officials and media have recently expressed some doubt about the ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a counteroffensive and the West's ability to provide long-term military assistance to Ukraine.  

"ISW’s prior assessments of Russian military capabilities along the Zaporizhia Oblast front line suggest that there are opportunities for Ukraine to conduct a counter-offensive in that strategically vital region," ISW concluded.

• On February 26, Vadym Skibitsky said that Ukrainian defenders would be ready to launch a counteroffensive in the spring.