Israel–Iran conflict: What could happen, and why it matters globally

Contents

1. A war between countries without a shared border

2. War in the Persian Gulf and its impact on markets

3. Israel's war may involve many

On the night of June 13, Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, striking its military and nuclear facilities. That same day, Tehran launched retaliatory missile attacks. Espreso explains why this war between two countries with no shared border is escalating, how it could draw in other nations, and what global consequences might follow.

A war between countries without a shared border

Within just two days of launching Operation Rising Lion, targeting military and nuclear infrastructure and several high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials, Israel faced retaliatory strikes. According to The Times of Israel, Iran is now targeting civilian infrastructure with ballistic missiles and drones. As of midday June 15, at least 13 people have been killed and hundreds injured.

This is the first direct confrontation — without proxy forces — between Iran and Israel, and it is quickly becoming the central focus of international politics.

The United States, whose military bases are scattered across the Middle East, appears to be publicly distancing itself from the conflict. However, Trump, for the third time this year, is calling for a peace agreement between the warring sides. On Truth Social, he claimed he could resolve the conflict through trade — similar to his previous efforts between Serbia and Kosovo or Egypt and Ethiopia — though he did not specify how.

Interestingly, reports claim the Trump administration has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu it is willing to consider a strike on Iran’s underground nuclear facility in Fordo if necessary to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. This information comes from Israeli journalist Barak Ravid citing unnamed officials, and has not been officially confirmed.

While the White House denies involvement in the military actions, CNN reports that the U.S. is ready to respond if American interests are affected.

“If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the US Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before,” Trump said.

Political scientist Stanislav Zhelykhovskyi told Espreso that the conflict may be aimed at pressuring Iran into signing a nuclear deal, possibly related to a deal proposed by Trump in April.

“What’s happening now might be a way to push Iran into negotiations. Diplomacy was the first choice, but patience has run out. The U.S. is likely more involved than it appears, as it keeps supporting and protecting Israel,” he said.

Zhelykhovskyi added that the U.S. may become more active, especially since additional American forces are being deployed to the region.

Israel’s potential ally (the U.S.) is somewhat predictable, but what about Iran’s? Will Russia step in to help the regime that supplied it with drones for attacks on Ukraine?

Russia has condemned the escalation in its official statements but has taken a mostly non-interventionist stance. Its Foreign Ministry blamed Israel and defended Iran’s nuclear program as “peaceful.”

“Unprovoked strikes on a sovereign state, its citizens, peaceful cities, and nuclear infrastructure are unacceptable… Israel has deliberately escalated the situation,” the statement read.

However, a strategic partnership agreement signed in January between Moscow and Tehran does not include mutual defense obligations like Russia’s agreements with North Korea or Belarus.

“The agreement doesn’t mandate mutual defense,” said Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, quoted by Radio Free Europe.

Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko recently confirmed that Russia is not obliged to defend Iran in the event of an attack.

Despite public support, Russia has so far avoided direct military involvement. According to Iran International, a London-based opposition channel, Ali Asghar Hejazi — senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — is negotiating with Russian officials about potential evacuation for himself and his family if the situation worsens. Other high-ranking Iranian officials have reportedly made similar preparations.

Meanwhile, the conflict has even become a topic of late-night calls between Putin and Trump, according to ABC News. Trump emphasized that he would not oppose Putin acting as a mediator.

“He called me about it. We had a long talk about it. We talked about this more than his situation. This is something I believe is going to get resolved,” said the 47th president.

Reactions from European leaders and the UN have so far been cautious and limited to expressions of “concern over the escalation.”

War in the Persian Gulf and its impact on markets

One day after the strikes began, Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Esmail Kowsari stated that Tehran may consider closing the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz — a key oil shipping lane between Iran and Oman through which a large share of global oil supply passes.

This artery is a critically important shipping strait between Oman and Iran, through which a significant part of the world's oil supplies pass. And its closure, as Kowsari noted, would be another option for responding to Israel's actions.

An expert on international energy and security relations, Mykhailo Honchar, emphasized that even if Hormuz is not closed, it will have an impact on the global market for "black gold".

"Even if supplies are not actually disrupted, speculation and risk premiums lead to price increases, which we are already seeing. Speculators always use any excuse to create price turbulence in the market and make quick money," the expert writes.

As an example, Рonchar cites the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020, when the price of oil rose by 4% the next day. In contrast, on the morning of June 13, the cost of the vital resource rose by 13%, but, as the author adds, if the conflict de-escalates, prices will return to previous levels in a few weeks.

It is also important to recall who may be the ultimate beneficiary of oil price increases. After all, the shadow fleets of the Russian Federation are constantly transporting it around the world, providing the Kremlin with revenue for the war with Ukraine. And therefore, upward price fluctuations could become a serious counterweight to the price ceilings for this product previously set by the EU and the G7.

Former head of Ukraine's Naftogaz Andriy Koboliev also focuses on an important aspect, emphasizing Israel's attacks on Iranian gas infrastructure.

"This will have a significant impact on the balance (and therefore the price upwards) of natural gas in Europe," Koboliev explains.

Explaining this schematically, he pointed to the supply of Iranian gas to Turkey, and that, in turn, to the EU. And given the risk of stopping gas pipelines to Tehran, Turkey will be forced to either reduce gas supplies to the EU or increase the share of more expensive liquefied natural gas. That is why Andriy Koboliev is sure that if Israel continues to strike in this sector, not only will the prices for this energy resource increase, but the portion of Russian gas redirected to Iran may also increase.

Israel's war may involve many

According to BBC diplomatic correspondent James Landale, one of the worst-case scenarios is the direct involvement of U.S. troops in this war. And this may happen due to the possibility of Iran striking U.S. bases. Such intervention will end in a super-powerful escalation and prolonging the conflict for many years.

Other Persian Gulf countries also remain under the sights, because earlier, in 2019 and 2022, Iran, through its proxy Houthis, resorted to attacks on oil fields in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. These states, like Israel, have American military bases on their territories, and therefore can claim to protect the sky by the United States if Tehran disperses the missile targets.

In addition, it should be recalled that Iran and Israel do not have a common border, and therefore the warheads of both will cross the airspace of third countries, which can also lead to danger and aggravation of the conflict.

Let Prime Minister Netanyahu first declare the goal of this confrontation to be the destruction of Iran's nuclear potential. However, now, given his video address to the "proud people of Iran" with a call to take advantage of the shelling and overthrow the ayatollah, the stakes seem to have increased significantly, to the point of eliminating the regime. And what will be the consequences if Israel succeeds in achieving its goals and the government is driven out of Tehran or destroyed? Will the lack of a stable centralized authority create even more conflicts on the ashes of the former, as happened previously in Iraq and Libya?