Is Russia bluffing or really ready for war?

On one hand, there is a sense that Russia’s forces are bogged down in Ukraine; on the other, small detachments of “little green men” could suddenly appear in the Baltic states, and unidentified drones might be flying over Berlin tomorrow. Large forces are not necessary for that.

The main goal is to sow panic and provoke protests — “stop helping Ukraine, let’s protect our own borders” — and ultimately to damage NATO’s credibility. That, for Moscow, would be the pinnacle of any hybrid special operation.

Russia’s ambassador to France, Meshkov, openly threatened NATO: “This will be war. If NATO shoots down a Russian plane, that will mean the start of a military conflict.”

Moscow has a short window to manipulate the situation — until 2029, while NATO reviews security protocols, coordinates allies and rebuilds military capacity that was hollowed out over the past three decades. Russia, meanwhile, aims to rearm by 2030. The question is who will move faster — and who will have the funds.

I link Moscow’s current escalation to active preparations for the Xi–Trump meeting scheduled in a few weeks. “Pick me up too,” Putin seems to howl from his sandbox. “Otherwise I will smash whatever I can, just to spite everyone.” It’s hysteria — crude hysteria — and most democracies still do not fully understand how to stop it or how to treat it clinically.

Source

About the author: Viktor Shlinnchak, chairman of the Institute of World Politics.
The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.