If authorities are interested in result, not epic picture…

In anticipation of the Ukrainian offensive, the world's mainstream media are trying to predict the further course of the war. Of course, the main answers will be found on the battlefield. And supporting the Ukrainian military is an absolute priority. From decent financial support to every donation and volunteer cargo.

But in the Free World, time is moving more slowly. Observers have the luxury of considering different scenarios for how this war (or phase of war) will end.

Knowing the Russians, the real question is formulated differently: what will motivate Russia to stop its aggression and not start it again.

Of course, the absolute means would be the 'deconstruction' of Russia as an empire. And the peaceful development of the entities that will emerge in its place. But this scenario will have to go through two major stages: the end of the war and postwar conditions in Ukraine, Russia, and the region. These stages are important regardless of how long they take.

“The absolute means would be the 'deconstruction' of Russia as an empire. And the peaceful development of the entities that will emerge in its place. But this scenario will have to go through two major stages: the end of the war and post-war conditions in Ukraine, Russia, and the region.”

Leading officials of Ukraine's allies repeat that Russia's victory cannot be allowed to happen - it would cause too much destruction to the world. That is why they are talking about guarantees for Ukraine.

The best guarantee against Russia's aggressive plans (and a trigger for many processes in Moscow that would be beneficial for us and the world) would be NATO membership.

Because other guarantees are either 'the same NATO, but under a different name' (military guarantees) or insufficient to deter Russia (and thus a path to renewed war).

But the Western establishment has yet to come to this conclusion.

It is critically important for Ukraine that it does. And this means that for the political class and civil society of Ukraine, this is a task on par with winning the Victory.

Ultimatums and emotions will not help in these matters, as they have very limited effectiveness on societies in NATO countries and have little or no effect on the establishment.

Instead, we need a clear roadmap, a plan of concrete steps that everyone who can convey a message to the West should work on. Moreover, they should work in coordination and mutual assistance.

Unless, of course, the authorities are interested in the result, not the epic picture.

Source

About the author. Rostyslav Pavlenko, Ukrainian politician, political scientist, political strategist, teacher, former lawmaker. 

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.