‘I’d watch the Suwałki gap’: Diplomat flags possible Russian provocation

Dmytro Dovhopolyi, PhD in History, UN Secretariat staff member (1987-2019), expressed this opinion on Espreso.

"I would expect some action from Russia, from the aggressor, and I would look at the so-called Suwałki corridor. This is the corridor that connects Russia with Königsberg. And I would expect either armed provocations or some diplomatic demarches there, but I would expect some provocations in the Suwalki area. This is in connection with Belarus," he said.

Dmytro Dovhopolyi noted that if this does not happen, he drew attention to the West 2025 exercise to be held between Russia and Belarus in September.

"If this does not happen, there are different data on the West 2025 exercise. Officially, the Russians announced 12 to 15 ,000 participants. Estonian intelligence indicates 50,000 and up to 100,000. If true, this is a very dangerous concentration on the Ukrainian border. It is also a possibility of provocations. As for Ukraine, Ukraine has surprised the world more than once. With the Moscow cruiser and with drones. And I believe that both Maliuk and Budanov have something in their back pockets that they can surprise with," the diplomat said.

• On March 30, it was reported that the defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania expressed concern that a possible ceasefire in Ukraine could increase the security threat to their countries. They believe that Russia will use this time to rearm and redeploy its troops along NATO's northeastern flank.