Espreso. Global

France’s nuclear signal unlocks German weapons for Kyiv — Resurgam

14 May, 2025 Wednesday
16:30

French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent nuclear remarks weren’t aimed at Ukraine, but at Germany’s new chancellor Friedrich Merz, to reaffirm earlier guarantees

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French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent remarks on nuclear weapons, reiterated during his national address, are not a new statement and do not concern Ukraine directly. As the international analytical community Resurgam points out, this was a repetition of his March 5 message, and its intended recipient is clear: Friedrich Merz.

According to Resurgam, Macron’s statement is closely tied to the debate in Germany over supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Macron is effectively reaffirming the security guarantees Merz had requested back in February when he was still the likely chancellor. Now, with Merz in office, Macron is signaling that the guarantees still stand. As Resurgam puts it: “By doing so again, Macron reaffirms to Merz the guarantees that, back in February, the then‑prospective chancellor asked for.”

But why does Merz need this reassurance?

Resurgam explains that the German chancellor is seeking a “Plan B” in case the United States pulls forces from its German bases. This comes at a time when Berlin is both escalating military support to Ukraine and considering naval actions in the Baltic Sea—such as inspecting vessels suspected of violating sanctions. These steps, says Resurgam, are being weighed in the context of a potential Russian refusal to engage in constructive dialogue.

Meanwhile, the EU is moving forward with expanding sanctions, reportedly targeting more of the shadow fleet in its 17th package, while Scandinavian, Baltic, and German forces are actively monitoring the Baltic Sea for sanctions enforcement.

Domestically, Merz also faces pressure from within his own coalition. He needs arguments to push back against the “doomsday prophets of war with Moscow”, as Resurgam notes, in the event of increased military support for Ukraine.

While Macron’s nuclear message may not directly reference Ukraine, Resurgam underscores that its effects are already being felt in Kyiv’s favor. It provides the political cover for accelerated delivery of Taurus missiles and other German weapons—signaled by Germany’s recent decision to stop publicly listing its military aid to Ukraine.

Resurgam also emphasizes the broader strategic implications: this moment marks “the initial stages of building Europe’s autonomous nuclear shield.” It’s not just about weapons transfers—it’s about reshaping Europe’s long-term security architecture.

Reducing reliance on the U.S. military presence and forging deeper intra-European defense cooperation enhances strategic autonomy. This shift, says Resurgam, will ultimately allow Europe to make independent defense decisions, “regardless of the White House’s stance, which has often contrasted with Europe’s natural interests.”

In short, Macron’s message to Merz is: “The plans remain unchanged — move forward.” The understanding is that France and Germany will finalize the details later, but the political green light has already been given.

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