The other day, the Washington Post published an article. The outlet talked to Zelenskyy and Reznikov through the prism of offensive expectations. The WP writes that the Ukrainian military has been exceeding the world's expectations for almost 15 months. Now Ukraine's top officials are trying to lower expectations, fearing that the outcome of the counteroffensive may not meet the expectations of the allies. The question then arises as to what outcome should be sufficient to impress the West, especially Washington.
According to Zelenskyy, he will consider the de-occupation of any Ukrainian territories a success. He also told the outlet that Ukraine will be ready to launch a counteroffensive as soon as it receives all the weapons it has agreed on with its partners. For his part, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov argued that expectations of a counteroffensive are overestimated in the world and that most people expect something huge, which can lead to emotional disappointment. According to him, ideally, a counteroffensive would not only liberate villages and cities, but also cut the logistical supply chains of the Russian troops and reduce their offensive capabilities. He said that the first assault formations are more than 90% ready for the operation, but some units continue to train abroad. He mentioned long-range weapons (about 150 kilometers), which are essential for offensive operations.
The WP presents various scenarios of offensive operations. They make assumptions about where the Defense Forces can attack. It says that one of the key goals should be to destroy the so-called land corridor between Crimea and Russia by attacking in the Zaporizhzhia region. Ukraine can also attack Crimea itself, or even from Kupiansk, to regain control of the territories in the Luhansk region. Or to the east through the city of Bakhmut. These are the assumptions and estimates made by American experts. We can summarize that no one should push the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack - neither our public moods and expectations, which can sometimes be overly rosy, nor the position of foreign partners and leaders, who are sometimes pragmatic and mercantile in their expectations of these changes on the battlefield. Preparing for a spring-summer offensive campaign is an extremely serious matter, and real readiness can only be assessed by the top military and political leadership, which will choose the place and time for action.
Kyrylo Sazonov, a Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman and political analyst, believes that the military leadership gives the president daily information about Ukraine and Russia’s situation, as well as options for action. When the decision is made to launch a counteroffensive, all brigades will receive their orders to act. According to him, it will not be announced, because surprise is one of the main factors for a counteroffensive to succeed. He added that everyone on the front line is preparing for possible actions in their area.
Sazonov said that General Syrskyi is constantly visiting Bakhmut and the situation is under control. He emphasized that Russia has repeatedly set tasks to capture some territory by a certain date, and they have failed. They recently burned the city with phosphorus. Russians can only take the ruins of the city. Perhaps this will never happen and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will attack there.
He added that Russian forces have never had a ‘shell famine’ in Bakhmut, as the head of the Wagner PMC Prigozhin says. They are shelling the positions with everything they have. And all the disputes between Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Ministry are internal intrigues. Either Prigozhin wants something, or Kadyrov wants something. According to Sazonov, this does not affect reality. These are just media games, and apparently, preparations are underway for the distribution of influence after Putin's ouster. Each owner of a PMC (according to the political scientist, there are more than 60 of them) is preparing to fight for something inside Russia. That's why neither Prigozhin nor Kadyrov want to lose their fighters here. They are avoiding this fate as best they can. No one believed that Kadyrov's men would come here.
The fighter added that it is difficult to provide for and defend Bakhmut. The entire leadership says that the Donetsk direction is the most difficult at the moment. Sazonov said it is hard every day and it will not get easier. He added that the soldiers arrive with different training, but some are not ready for real combat experience. The soldiers who come after the training grounds are taught by those who are fighting to survive, to be effective, not to kill themselves. Many things can be acquired only here, and then people become real soldiers. You cannot completely prepare a person for a real war.
He advised people who might soon become military men to run every day. Because you will have to run every day in a bulletproof vest with a helmet and a rifle. If you haven't learned how, it will be hard. Sazonov also advises going to the shooting range once or twice a week and doing physical training. No one will carry anyone and take into account fatigue. Strong legs mean life.
The soldier added that all the soldiers see the problem of society's certain disengagement from the war. It seems that the war is somewhere in the east and someone is fighting. Many complain that people are already living in peacetime categories. If Kyiv is not threatened by anything other than infrequent air raids, which are handled by air defense, then everything is far away. Sazonov says that no one knows what to do about it - how to convey to people that the war is not over and the threat of an enemy offensive remains, no matter how much they talk about a counteroffensive.
Each of us should not wait, but find a place in the preparation and conduct of these offensive operations - donate funds, support volunteer projects, donate blood, and carry out information work.
On Friday, a Russian Su-35 aircraft dangerously intercepted a Polish L-410 Turbolet aircraft of the Border Guard over the Black Sea. It was conducting a routine patrol mission under the auspices of the Black Sea operation in international airspace in cooperation with Romanian services. Russians tried to influence the flight of the Polish plane.
This is not the first incident over the Black Sea - Russian fighter jets have attacked a British reconnaissance plane and an American drone. In the case of Britain, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the House of Commons that one of the Russian fighter jets even fired a missile. Then came the Russian explanation that it was a technical malfunction. This was the first precedent of a "black swan" - when Russian military aircraft could have caused a significant escalation in relations with NATO countries. When we talk about these cases, we understand that these risks can arise at any stage of Russia's actions on the ground and in the air.
Russia continues to pose a threat to Ukraine and other countries. The fight against this threat is aimed at giving us more and better capabilities. A good example is the use of the Patriot air defense system. This week, these systems accomplished a unique thing - on May 4, the Kinzhal hypersonic missile was shot down. The Russian Federation launched it from a MIG-31 fighter jet. This example suggests that the Ukrainian air defense system is finally gaining new and unique experience in dealing with hypersonic targets. The Kinzhal missile was a kind of fetish for the Russian military leadership. They said it was impossible to shoot down. The information about the downing was not easily available to our readers and viewers, but the Air Force commander confirmed that a unique case had occurred. In the future, the enemy will continue to use various weapons available.
It is imperative that our air defense system is further strengthened. Reinforcement with such means as Patriot should be scalable. I think that the American side, realizing the need and effectiveness, can in the future increase the transfer of such systems to cover almost the entire country with reliable air defense. Although this is extremely difficult. More promising is not only strengthening our air defense with new anti-aircraft missile systems, but also the transfer of F-16 fighter jets. The situation with repelling Russian threats on the ground and in the air is a serious challenge that we are effectively countering with the help of our partners.
Preparations for a new large-scale offensive operation, which is expected to take place in late spring or early summer, will be a new frontier. It will create new political realities. To carry out a certain negotiation process. Its prospects can be determined after the offensive on the front line and the efforts to liberate our territories. This is the main prerequisite for the situation with de-occupation to change for the better.