De-occupation of Melitopol will allow Crimea liberation. Serhiy Zgurets column

How many weapons does the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to end the war

More and more statements regarding the end of the war and how many weapons we need for victory are appearing in the media. General Havrylov said that the war will end by the end of spring, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces can return Crimea by the end of December. He said this as an assumption, not a certain thing. Then the adviser to the head of the Presidential Office Mykhailo Podolyak told how many weapons Ukraine needs to bring the end of the war closer - 200 tanks, 300 units of armored vehicles, 100 artillery systems, 50-70 MLRS.

Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi wrote in his well-known article that the offensive campaign for next year requires at least forming several operational directions and 10 to 20 brigades. Ten brigades need 300 tanks, more than 1,000 infantry fighting vehicles, about 360 artillery systems, and 180 self-propelled guns. Equipment supply speed will be crucial.

Missiles for Ukraine from Israel

Today, experts are discussing news related to Israel and possible missile aid to Ukraine. As far as I understand, Lora missiles, which were once transferred to Azerbaijan, are meant. These missiles have a range of 400 km, in the export version - up to 300 km. This is the model that we need, but, to be honest, I still have little faith in Israel's political will.

According to military expert Serhiy Hrabskyi, after the withdrawal of Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnipro River, there is no visible movement that would indicate the creation of a powerful strike group of Russian troops in a separate direction.

Russian troops are slowly advancing in the Donetsk region

In the Donetsk direction, Russian forces continue to ram our positions near ​​Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka with stubborn desperation. We observe a rather slow but still advance of Russian soldiers there. They will try to continue pressuring our battle formations. Actually, it was absolutely necessary for Russia to transfer forces and resources from the Kherson region here, but there will be no changes in the battle tactics. The situation in the area and its features (the battles take place mainly in urbanized areas) do not allow them to introduce anything new. The enemy has some success in Maryinka. Their goal is obviously Kurakhove.

It is necessary to stop the offensive in the Luhansk region in time

According to Hrabskyi, the enemy continues to try to detain our units in the Luhansk region, preventing them from breaking through to the Svatove-Kreminna road. To the south of Svatove, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have successes, and advancements. We can assume that part of the Russian units may be transferred there to somehow hold the front line.

It is now important for AFU to reach the Troitske — Svatove — Kreminna line, opening an operational space for an offensive on Starobilsk. It is our goal at this stage of the offensive. The point is not to liberate the territory, but to hold it after liberation. It will depend on the number of troops and forces we can provide in that direction. What concerns Russian troops and how they use their territory, if we look at the map we will realize that the essence of the operation is that in every offensive the main thing is to stop in time. To not allow yourself to be lured into a trap and avoid the flank attack of the enemy.

In this regard, we need other types of weapons. Munitions operate at a greater distance and destroy communication at the operational-strategic level. Russia has fewer roads and railways, compared to Ukraine. This can weaken their ability to perform maneuvers.

Zaporizhzhia is a matter of principle for Russia

Hrabskyi added that more and more information occurs that indicates the intensification of hostilities in the Zaporizhzhia direction - from Vasylivka through Orihiv and Hulyaipole. We can assume that the enemy will launch certain offensive actions there and concentrate forces and means from the Kherson region. For the enemy, the breakthrough to Zaporizhzhia is of fundamental importance, because they currently have no other way to cross the other bank of the Dnipro River.

Threat from Belarus

Hrabskyi added that the situation in the Belarusian direction continues to get more complicated. These are both provocative aircraft sorties and the redeployment of Russian troops. There is still no formation of assault units there, which would testify to the impending attack. This direction is very important for Russia, since they think they can break through to the Kovel-Sarny-Korosten line to cut Ukraine's supply line.

Melitopol is a strategic city for both armies

The enemy is now in a very vulnerable position on the Dnipro’s left bank in the Kherson region because there is nowhere to hide from shelling. Melitopol is a strategic goal for both, us and the Russian occupiers. It is a communication hub. Having liberated the city, we can cut the corridor between Russia and Crimea. This will put Russian troops in the Kherson region in a disadvantaged position, and we will create pre-conditions for the further liberation of Crimea. In order to do that, we need to liberate Melitopol and gain access to the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov.

Winter is Ukraine’s ally

Hrabskyi believes that winter will be an ally of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There are two main points - the skill to fight in winter, we have it, and the ability to provide for the needs of the army. The situation is not perfect, there are certain shortcomings that do not give us full confidence that we will be able to complete any task. The enemy did not prepare for such a war. We have information about deficiencies in the primitive rear support of units. A hungry, cold, sleep-deprived soldier is a bad fighter, no matter what skills he has. In terms of supply, the enemy is in a much weaker position. Ukraine is an unfamiliar territory for Russian soldiers, logistics do not allow them to provide themselves with sufficient supplies and the motivation of the troops is low.