Conflict between Prigozhin and Russian Defense Ministry intensifies - Institute for Study of War

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"The Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely responsible for capturing Soledar, Donetsk Oblast," the statement said.

It is noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin attributed the success on the front line to the Ministry of Defense. Putin's statement was broadcast live on state television. It was probably an attempt to undermine Prigozhin's influence in the Russian information space, because the Kremlin leader hadn’t previously commented on tactical successes in Ukraine.

Analysts believe that Putin probably demonstrates that he retains control over traditional Russian media, while Prigozhin continues to grow his audience on]] Telegram and other social media.

The Russian Defense Ministry also continued to report that assault troops from the Southern Military District and airborne troops were attacking Ukrainian positions around Bakhmut. Ministry likely deliberately excluded mention of Wagner's forces in its daily briefing.

The Institute recalled that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indirectly accused Prigozhin of deliberately exposing the conflict between the Russian Defense Ministry and the Wagner forces in the Russian information space.

Peskov attempted to deny reports of a conflict between Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Ministry. On January 16, he said that the reports were "products of information manipulations." But he added that while most such manipulations come from Russia's “enemies,” the Kremlin has “friends” who also behave in a similar way.

Experts believe that Peskov's statement may have been tacitly addressed to Prigozhin, whose criticism of the Russian Defense Ministry has become increasingly vocal.

However, ISW claims Prigozhin is "continuing his efforts to undermine faith in the Russian MoD and in Putin-aligned actors."

He stated that he has no reason to distrust Peskov. The founder of the Wagner PMC continued his tactic of using deliberately vague messages to generate more debate in the Russian information space, analysts added.

Key conclusions of ISW analysts

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the war is in a decisive phase, but this doesn’t mean that Russian forces are planning to use all resources

• A well-known milblogger has revived discussions about the Kremlin's intention to return Viktor Medvedchuk, a close Putin ally, to power in Ukraine

• The appointment of the Russian General Staff Chief, Army General Valery Gerasimov as theater commander of Russian troops in Ukraine, in particular, did not cause a significant wave of criticism in the discourse of Russian nationalist milblogger 

• Russian forces continued to carry out local strikes to regain lost positions in the area of Svatove and in the Kupyansk direction, while Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the area of Kreminna

• Russian forces made additional territorial gains north of Bakhmut and may be intensifying attacks south of the city

• Russian forces continued ground attacks near Avdiivka and Donetsk city

• Russian forces continued efforts to amass manpower on the left bank of the Kherson region and develop new logistical routes between Russia and southern Ukraine

• Low discipline in Russian troops continues to pose a direct danger to Russian soldiers and limits the effectiveness of the forces

Earlier, the Institute for the Study of War stated that Prigozhin used reports about the situation in Soledar, Donetsk region, to strengthen the reputation of his private company as an effective fighting force. Later, Putin appointed Gerasimov as the commander of the Russian troops in Ukraine to weaken the influence of Prigozhin and the security forces. It was noted that Prigozhin tried to promote the role of PMC Wagner in the capture of Soledar to increase his authority.