Claims of Russian breakthrough in Pokrovsk are false – what are Russia’s actual goals

According to OSINT analysts, Russian troops have recently stepped up their push toward Dobropillya, particularly trying to secure positions near the Dobropillya–Kramatorsk highway.

Updated DeepState maps show Russian forces have moved forward by about 10 kilometers.

DeepState notes that Russian forces, using sheer numbers of infantry, entered the settlements of Kucheriv Yar and Zolotyi Kolodyaz, where they are building up troops for further attacks. From Kucheriv Yar, the Russians advanced toward Vesele, where around 20 Russian soldiers were spotted in the past day. At the same time, Russian units are trying to move in the Novovodyane and Petrivka areas, probing for weak points to reach the Dobropillya–Kramatorsk highway.

DeepState warns that if Russian troops consolidate in the captured villages and keep advancing, Dobropillya could fall faster than Pokrovsk.

Ukraine's Operational Strategic Group of Forces "Dnipro" reported that in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya sectors, a small group of Russian soldiers, about 10 people, managed to get past the first Ukrainian defense line, but this doesn’t mean they took control of the territory shown on analytical maps.

"We need to understand these are small groups of a few people. Their presence is recorded, so on open-source maps it looks like, ‘oh my God, the Russians have advanced 12 kilometers into Ukrainian territory.’ But we’re not talking about them controlling that territory. It’s about 5–10 Russians who slipped in. And it’s nothing like what it looks like on a map. They didn’t secure the whole route, they just got through and tried to hide in a basement. Of course, reserves were sent to flush them out and destroy them," said Lieutenant Colonel Viktor Trehubov, spokesman for the Dnipro Special Operations Command.

Meanwhile, a statement by Ukraine's StratCom directly denied reports of a Russian breakthrough on one of the eastern front lines.

"In the past day, some outlets have claimed that Russian troops broke through one of the eastern front lines. This is false and does not reflect reality," the report said.

The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed this and added they are already responding to the situation.

By order of Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Syrskyi, additional troops and resources have been deployed to destroy enemy sabotage groups penetrating the defense line in the Pokrovsk sector.

One of these units is the 1st Corps of the Azov National Guard, which several days ago took up a designated defensive position in the Pokrovsk sector.

“The situation remains complex and dynamic. The enemy, attempting to advance in this direction, is suffering heavy losses in manpower and equipment,” the press service of the 1st Corps of the Azov National Guard said in a statement.

The corps reports that its units have planned and carried out measures to block Russian forces in a specific area.

It is worth noting that the fighting has shifted to the flanks of the Pokrovsk Front towards Myrnohrad and Dobropillya.

According to the General Staff, in the Pokrovsk sector Russia is most active near the settlements of Poltavka, Popiv Yar, Mayak, Dorozhne, Nykanorivka, Kucheriv Yar, Nove Shakhove, Novoekonomichne, Sukhetske, Rodynske, Promin, Udachne, Lysivka, Zvirove, Horikhove, and Dachne.

Russian forces are trying to reach the highway near Rodynske to cut the only asphalt road.

Despite the difficult situation in the Pokrovsk sector and directly near the city, it is too early to say that Russian troops have achieved significant tactical gains in Pokrovsk.

The main threat to the Pokrovsk agglomeration, not just the city itself, is not a frontal assault to break through Ukrainian positions. Instead, Russian forces are using small assault groups of 8–12 soldiers.

These are not reconnaissance and sabotage groups. Earlier claims that such groups were infiltrating Pokrovsk were false. This is the tactic of small assault groups, but in large numbers and on a narrow section of the front, which gives them an advantage in firepower. This allows for limited tactical advances into Ukrainian defenses.

Pokrovsk is a large industrial city.

It has a developed industrial zone and, importantly, a very dense urban area. Therefore, it cannot be said that the occupying Russian forces already hold tactical advantages in Pokrovsk or that the city’s fall is imminent. Such claims are outright Russian fabrications. For example, Chasiv Yar, a much smaller city with fewer residents before the war, has held out for over a year and a half despite constant assaults. In my view, attacks by assault groups on Pokrovsk are mainly an attempt to stretch Ukrainian operational reserves away from the flanks, where the main Russian offensives are focused.

Reports suggest that the noise around alleged Russian sabotage group breakthroughs into Pokrovsk was only a diversion, with the main offensive shifting to the right flank near Myrnohrad and Dobropillya. Their aim is to create a “small cauldron” that would make the defense of Pokrovsk impossible.

The Russians are avoiding a direct assault on Pokrovsk, switching instead to flanking tactics and trying to seize control of the supply line for Ukraine’s Defense Forces.

It’s no coincidence the main fighting is now in the Myrnohrad and Dobropillya directions, the flanks. On the right flank, near Pokrovsk, Russian troops are pushing to control the highway between Rodynske and Razine. This is the only paved road for moving operational reserves and evacuating the wounded. If they succeed tactically, they could threaten an operational encirclement, but it’s only a threat. The left flank of the Pokrovsk front has been stabilized thanks to successful actions by Ukraine’s Defense Forces.

I repeat that the main Russian effort remains in the Myrnohrad area. They are also using “meat assault” tactics.

Earlier reports said the Kremlin had sent over 110,000 troops to take Pokrovsk. Equipment, artillery, and large amounts of ammunition are being replenished daily. Ukraine’s task is not only to prevent encirclement but also to destroy enemy reserves.

The Russians are advancing, but there’s no breakthrough to Dobropillya.

Moscow is actively spreading claims of a breakthrough as the Trump–Putin meeting approaches, amid Trump’s statements about wanting to return significant territory to Ukraine.

This looks like Russian information pressure, portraying tactical success. In effect, the Russian dictator is telling Trump: “Why should we negotiate if we’ve already reached the Dnipropetrovsk regional border? In a week or two, we’ll finish taking Donetsk region.”

On August 12, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists he believes the goal of Russia’s push toward Pokrovsk is to shape the information backdrop before the U.S.–Russia meeting.

“The goal is clear: to create an information backdrop by August 15, especially in the U.S. media space, that Russia is advancing and Ukraine is losing territory,” he said.

Near Pokrovsk, the Russians are trying to bypass the city from the flanks, but they will never take it head-on. For a long time, they have operated in small infantry groups, sent in large numbers to gain an edge on a narrow front.

With stretched lines and short manpower, “leakage” is happening. But reports of 18-kilometer breakthroughs are false. Stabilization efforts are underway to prevent such scenarios.

“Ukraine’s defenders are focused on their tasks, holding the lines, and need full public support to repel new enemy attacks,” said General Staff spokesman Major Andriy Kovalov.

I stress that only official press officers, not analytical groups like DeepState, can now comment on the front-line situation.

Exclusively for Espreso

About the author. Dmytro Sniehyryov, military expert, co-chairman of the "Prava Sprava" organization.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.