When assessing Chinese policy (including towards Russia and Ukraine), I would proceed from the fact that we are still dealing with a thousand-year-old civilization with its own traditions and approaches, which have also been formed for a very long time. We are used to reading the famous "strategems" with interest, almost as an anecdote, without fully realizing that this is a very real approach, a real way of thinking, in which cunningness is the main virtue. If you deceive someone, good for you, if you get more income, good for you again. Therefore, I would not expect straightforward moves from representatives of a civilization that has been developing complex and cunning moves for thousands of years.
“The main thing to understand is this: China considers Russia a "junior partner" that is increasingly turning into a colony and raw material appendage. It is ironic that China itself played this role for the Russians more than a century ago”
As for me, the main thing to understand is this: China considers Russia a "junior partner" that is increasingly turning into a colony and a raw material appendage. It is ironic that China itself played this role for the Russians more than a century ago. China is quite happy with the isolation of the Putin regime. Isolation, but not disintegration and death, which may reduce China's profit. And profit is the most important thing.
The fact that China has become more actively involved in the process, in my opinion, should indicate that the threat of the Putin regime's collapse and death may now seem quite real to them. So, the Putin regime needs to be supported so that it does not collapse. But it should be done in a way that minimizes the risks to China itself. That is, to avoid potential losses from sanctions.
“I would not expect any "lend-lease" from China, but they may well be looking for some mechanisms to support the rapidly bankrupt Putin regime”
The leak of information that China is preparing to provide Russia with weapons was meant to show the Kremlin as a not very reliable ally. This does not mean that China will abandon its support for the regime, but it will do so much more covertly. In any case, they will weigh all the risks and benefits for themselves very carefully, and if they give something to Russia, they will try to deceive everyone, hide everything as much as possible, and minimize the risks.
Therefore, I would not expect any "lend-lease" from China, but they may well be looking for some mechanisms to support the rapidly bankrupt Putin regime. Mechanisms designed for cunningness.
About the author. Petro Oleshchuk, political scientist.
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