British Intelligence names purpose of Belarus' military exercises near Polish and Lithuanian  borders

This was reported on Twitter.

It is noted that on August 7, 2023, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced that the 6th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade would conduct exercises in the Grodno area in northwestern Belarus, near the Polish and Lithuanian borders.

The ministry also stated that the exercises are intended to take into account the lessons learned by the Russian military in Ukraine. It added that there is a real possibility that a small number of advisers from the Wagner Group will join the Belarusian troops for a training role.

These particular exercises are likely part of a regular training cycle for the Belarusian military. The post adds that the 6th garrison, where the Mechanized Brigade is stationed, is located in Grodno, and it is unlikely that the unit is currently deployed with the necessary means to ensure its combat capability.

(4/4) However, Russia is almost certainly keen to promote Belarussian forces as posturing against NATO.

— Ministry of Defence ???????? (@DefenceHQ) August 11, 2023

How the Wagner troops ended up in Belarus

After the mutiny of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in late June, the Kremlin announced the relocation of Wagner mercenaries to Belarus.

On June 27, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, Wagner mercenaries  who arrived with him will not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed there. However, Lukashenko emphasized that he expects the mercenaries to help in the defense of Belarus, without specifying the potential source of the country's perceived threat.

On June 29, a satellite recorded the construction of a tent camp near Asipovichy in the Mogilev region of Belarus, and on July 3, Russian media published a photo of an alleged Wagner camp.

On July 11, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated that the Wagner mercenaries would train the Belarusian army.

On July 14, media reported that training sessions with units of the territorial troops were taking place near Asipovichy (Belarus), where Wagner PMC fighters were acting as instructors in some military disciplines.

On the morning of July 15, a large convoy of cars and trucks with license plates of the so-called DPR and LPR was spotted in Belarus. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service confirmed that those were mercenaries of the Wagner PMC.

On Sunday, July 16, the Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported that two flags - of Russia and the Wagner PMC - had been installed at the checkpoint on the border between Belarus and Russia.

Wagner Group announced that on July 30, their main base in the Russian Federation, located in the village of Molkino in Krasnodar Krai, would be closed.

On July 19, a sixth convoy with Wagner PMC fighters arrived in Belarus.

On July 19, Wagner PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin addressed Wagner fighters in Belarus, calling the situation at the front a "disgrace" and urging mercenaries to "wait for the moment to show their full potential."

Later, on July 23, self-appointed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced the desire of the mercenaries from the Russian Wagner PMC to "go on an excursion" to Poland. The same day, it was reported that the tenth column of Wagner's mercenaries, which included at least ten pieces of equipment, had arrived in Belarus.

The ISW stated that there is no evidence that Wagner's mercenaries in Belarus have the heavy weapons necessary for a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland.

On July 25, the 11th column of Wagner's mercenaries arrived in Belarus, this time with armored vehicles. The convoy included at least 29 vehicles. It was also revealed  who led them in Belarus.

On July 27, the National Resistance Center reported that Wagner PMC units were looking for people in Belarus who were ready to fight against Lithuania and Poland. Also the same day Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported that the twelfth column of Wagner's PMC, which included at least 50 pieces of equipment, had arrived in Belarus.

On July 28, the Center for National Resistance warned that Wagner troops were preparing provocations on the border of Belarus with the EU. Also on that day, the 13th column of mercenaries was spotted in Belarus.

On July 31, the Wagner PMC had suspended the work of its regional recruitment centers "indefinitely." And Prigozhin revoked the vacations of employees and ordered them to arrive in Belarus by August 5.

Another location of Wagner PMC was discovered in Belarus near Asipovichy, where mercenaries are using warehouses.

On August 4, the SBU uncovered a plan by Russia to conduct a terrorist attack on an oil refinery in Belarus to blame Ukraine and provoke a war. The Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group, which consists of military personnel, is supposed to be under the cover of Wagner army and Ukrainian saboteurs.