Bottom line of Ukrainian counteroffensive: military summary by Serhiy Zgurets

Results of Ukraine's counteroffensive

The Russian army is reinforcing this line with personnel and fortifications. The situation has really changed. At the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the General Staff said that Ukraine should at least reach Tokmak. Now it is 19 kilometers to Tokmak. In the four months since the start of the offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced 10 kilometers, taking into account the enemy's fortifications. Looking at the infographics, it becomes clear that Ukraine’s army is trying to extend its advance into the enemy's defenses. The enemy is holding this section of the front in such a way that Ukrainian forces cannot ensure a quick breakthrough.

Therefore, the situation at the front line reflects the words of Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who explained that we have now reached a certain stalemate, when Ukraine has technological parity with the Russians. However, Ukraine needs to work on it. First of all, we must create conditions for rapid breakthroughs and put pressure on the enemy. Ukraine also needs to destroy the enemy's forces and equipment. This is also an important part of Ukrainian offensive action. So the offensive actions of the armed forces are continuing. Not in the large scale offensive manner, but with the active work of artillery and long-range weapons. I believe that this tactic will not change in the coming months.

Distance from the liberated areas to Tokmak is 20 km

War live map of russian offensive: situation in the Avdiivka sector

The situation in the Avdiivka sector remains difficult. Since the 9th of October, the enemy has been constantly increasing the number of personnel in this area, carrying out offensive operations, changing tactics and approaches. Last week there were reports that the Russian forces were trying to advance from the north and south of the city. Now, when we talk about the railroad and the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, some military experts say that the enemy has crossed the railroad and is trying to advance towards the plant.

There is also information that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have pushed the enemy back. This means that the enemy is now trying to implement its previous concept. In particular, to encircle the city from the south and north and cut off our group's logistics.

However, since the beginning of the offensive on Avdiivka, the Russian losses remain enormous, and the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defend Avdiivka are still there. The only question is the resources for the defense of Avdiivka. Means, however, are a component that says that we are capable of holding this section of the front. Therefore, the situation remains difficult, but leadership, reserves and timely decisions make it possible to deter the Russian invasion in the Avdiivka sector.

Map of hostilities in the Avdiivka sector

Hostilities map Ukrainian offensive in Kherson region

On the left bank of the Dnipro River there are more than 5 footholds controlled by Ukrainian troops, and there is also a large gray zone. The Russian enemy is trying to redeploy troops in this area to balance the threat. 

In any case, this part of the front remains dangerous for the Russian forces. Ukrainian troops should continue to maintain this threat and keep the pressure on the enemy.

Map of hostilities in Kherson region