Battle for Soledar, Germany may transfer combat aircraft to Ukraine - military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Supreme Commander's Headquarters meeting on January 16

If we talk about the situation on the fronts, then we should start with that regular meeting of the Supreme Commander-In-Chief's headquarters that happened today. Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims events on the front line were discussed, primarily in the Donetsk region and the south of Ukraine. It was about the possible aggressor's actions in the nearest future. They also discussed the development of effective measures to counter new Russian missile attacks on the country's civilian infrastructure. Among other issues, they discussed providing the Ukrainian Armed Forces with ammunition and training tactical commanders. All this is extremely important, both for conducting current military operations and for preparing reserves for Ukrainian troops.

The situation with Soledar and Bakhmut is similar to the battles for Sievierodonetsk

More details about the situation on the frontlines and what to expect from the enemy in the near future, I have discussed with a military analyst, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladislav Seleznyov.

In his opinion, the current situation with Bakhmut and Soledar is similar to Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. Because the Russian forces have huge losses, trying to capture these cities. In the situation with Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian troops quite successfully held the defense of the city, causing maximum losses to Russia. In addition, the analyst noted that near Soledar, Russia is losing not only mercenaries from Wagner PMC but also elite troops. In particular, paratroopers and special forces. Seleznyov stressed that such losses of the Russian army are caused by fighting in urban areas and it is always very difficult to storm the city. He also noted that the situation near Soledar may change completely in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces if our units can receive reinforcements in artillery, heavy weapons, and a sufficient amount of ammunition.

Map of military operations near the city of Soledar

Russia can't seize the initiative on the battlefield

Military analyst Vladislav Seleznyov believes that it will be difficult for the Russian army to seize the initiative on the battlefield. The biggest problem for Russian troops is the insufficient number of armored vehicles for active offensive operations. On the other hand, according to the analyst, Russia has no problems with personnel. The program of combat adjustment at the level of battalions in Russia is already being completed. That is, in the near future, the personnel will be ready to fulfill the tasks of the Putin regime. As for armored vehicles, the situation here is completely different. Seleznyov noted that the condition of Russian armored vehicles can be assessed by the samples that they sent to Belarus. In particular, most units of this equipment are immediately sent for repair due to their unsatisfactory condition.

Threats from the territory of Belarus

Reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Vladislav Seleznyov is convinced that threats from the territory of Belarus should not be underestimated. Since the distance from the border with Belarus to Kyiv is only 200 km. And at the beginning of the invasion, Russia very actively used the territory of Belarus for military operations and missile strikes. However, as Seleznyov noted, information from the representative of the Ukrainian Air Force Yuriy Ihnat is very relevant. He clearly stated that the landing of Russian Airborne Troops in Kyiv is out of the question. Since no Russian plane will be able to safely cross the airspace of Ukraine. As for missile attacks from the territory of Belarus, such a risk has existed since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Germany may transfer Tornado combat aircraft to Ukraine

Deputy Foreign Minister and former Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk offered Scholz to give Ukraine Tornado multi-role combat aircraft. We are talking about 93 multi-purpose combat aircraft that are being prepared to be decommissioned in Germany. Ukraine does not demand immediate military assistance but only looks for options for developing and scaling up this assistance.

According to the former head of the  Antonov State Enterprise who is now in charge of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Los, the transfer of these aircraft is quite real. Everyone understands, including in Germany, that the transfer of American 5th-generation F-35 fighters to Berlin will not take place shortly. But we are talking about agreeing on the approach itself, that the equipment that is being removed from combat duty by our allies was transferred to Ukraine for war with Russia. We are talking not only about the tornado but also about the F-15 or F-16.

Panavia Tornado multi-purpose combat aircraft of the German Air Force.