Andrzej Duda's Gordian Knot

Amid conflicting statements about the origin of the missile that killed two people in Poland's Lublin Voivodeship the day before yesterday, the problems facing Polish President Andrzej Duda seem minor for now. But they will definitely come out like a needle from a bag, when the term of office of the head of our friendly country will come to an end.

That is why Duda's reaction to the incident in the village of Przewodów, Hrubieszów County, was lightning fast. And, perhaps, it should be trusted more than the later interpretations expressed, in particular, by American President Joe Biden in Bali. Duda clearly said that the deadly missile is Russian-made, and it is unlikely that Ukrainian air defense forces use such weapons to fight Russian air targets. What's more, experts in their comments for the Polish mass media speak in unison about the Kh-101.

Official Warsaw went further - summoned the Russian ambassador to the carpet at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Before the prospect of activation of Art. 4 of the NATO Treaty, more conciliatory statements appeared, which, however, do not diminish Russia's guilt in what happened. "This is not Ukraine's fault. Russia bears full responsibility, as it continues the illegal war against Ukraine," NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said in particular.

"For the first time since the beginning of the war, we are dealing with the consequences of Russia's attack on Ukraine. We assumed that this could happen... Polish citizens were killed," said Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland Pavel Yablonsky. And Andrzej Duda cautiously suggested that "there is no indication that this was a deliberate attack on Poland. It was probably a Russian-made S-300 missile. We currently have no evidence that it was a Russian-launched missile. There are many signs that it was an air defense missile that, unfortunately, fell on the territory of Poland."

This is where the political trap is hidden, into which the energetic president from "Law and Justice" (PiS) may fall in about two years. But, troubles will await him even now.

Poles have not forgotten Russia's terrible crime near Smolensk, when 96 representatives of the Polish elite, led by the then PiS president Lech Kaczyński, died in the explosion of the presidential plane (no doubt organized by Moscow). They did not forget that the political opponents of PiS every time raised their barrenness and sometimes outright sabotage of the investigation. There was even talk of removing the prosecutors who were approaching the successful resolution of this case.

Jarosław Kaczyński, the brother of the president killed by the Russians, who still heads PiS and is, in the opinion of most Poles, the most influential politician of the Republic of Poland, even accused the then Prime Minister Donald Tusk (from the Civic Platform party) of conspiring with Putin. It was said that the Kremlin dictator convinced Tusk over the phone not to fly on the fatal flight and to stay in Warsaw.

Later, when PiS came to power, criticism turned against it. Despite the efforts of numerous commissions and prosecutors, the investigation actually "danced" in one place. Only on April 11 of this year, the Polish subcommittee for the re-investigation of air crashes presented the final report on the analysis of the causes of the crash. The immediate cause of the Tu-154M plane crash was an explosion in the left wing.

The Smolensk tragedy on April 10, 2010, despite a solid evidence base, is still not closed. But after the explosions in Przewodów and the change in Duda's rhetoric from overtly anti-Russian to more moderate, we should expect that now he and PiS will once again act as the whipping boy. I do not think that the sharpest criticism will come from the Civic Platform camp - this mature liberal political force is fully aware of the catastrophic consequences of the war between NATO and Russia. But we should not forget about other figures of the "right-wing", in particular Kukiz'15, etc. 

Therefore, the friend of Ukraine Andrzej Duda and the political force from which he emerged must somehow untie the Gordian knot of the Przewodów tragedy. It is not possible to cut it down - allies from the North Atlantic Alliance are against it, and Washington too. If we leave everything to the will of God, then the politics of Warsaw will once again become a hostage of the "Russian factor". And everything will end traditionally for Poland. This feature was ironically described by the famous Polish actor Jan Englert: “As soon as I say: oh God, great God, You don't know us, Poles, I immediately think: maybe it's better that you don't know us.”

About the author: Ihor Hulyk, journalist, Editor-in-Chief of the Espreso.West website. 

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.