No major drop in Ukraine’s currency expected this year, but 2026 brings some uncertainty — analyst

He shared the information on Espreso TV.

"It should be understood that not only domestic production affects the state of the foreign exchange market, but also the size of financial aid. We have had a relatively good currency situation in recent years due to the enormous amounts of financial assistance from our partners. For 2025, this aid is quite substantial. We can already guarantee that we will cover our budget expenditures this year, as approximately $40 billion will come to Ukraine. Given that our current trade deficit is $23 billion, we are covering this shortfall. Therefore, there will be no significant devaluation of the hryvnia, because a huge amount of aid is coming to Ukraine," commented the head of the analytical direction of the ANTS NGO.

Illia Neshchodovskyi noted that there is some uncertainty for 2026, related to potential fatigue from European partners, and the Americans may stop providing aid. He added that the U.S. may also refuse to provide assistance to Ukraine this year through the use of frozen Russian assets.

• On March 21, the head of Ukraine's Finance Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Danylo Hetmantsev stated that at the current rate of economic growth, Ukraine will reach its pre-war GDP by 2034, making it crucial to secure reliable security and economic guarantees for post-war development.