500,000 losses will resonate in Russia, one Ukrainian offensive will not equal victory: weekly military results

Ukrainian military analyst, CEO of Defense Express military expert group, Serhiy Zgurets has shared his latest assessment of the frontline situation in Ukraine.

Russian army disperses forces around Bakhmut, Ukrainian Armed Forces hold the city

The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to hold the Russian troops at the outskirts of certain parts of the city. About 65% of the territory of Bakhmut is occupied. This is a general indicator that does not accurately reflect the picture of the fighting. Now the enemy forces are trying to push into the city's neighborhoods from the north and south. It is more dangerous in the south. They are trying to cross Korsunskyi Street and the streets leading to the city center. The fighting is just approaching it. The Russian occupiers have crossed the Bakhmutka river and are using the roads across the river. They are also trying to move along the river itself to the center, where they are being held back by Ukraine's units.

The fighting in the city is dynamic – snipers, artillery and armored vehicles are working. The military mission of Bakhmut continues – the city is being held. Logistics is working efficiently, there were counterattacks that pushed the Russians away from the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut highway. We can say that the city will continue to be held.

We need to keep an important balance in terms of troops. The 92nd and 93rd brigades are bearing the brunt of the fighting in Bakhmut. Additional forces are being thrown in, mainly artillery units. Other units are preparing for counteroffensive actions, and are still in training. It is important not to deploy all the forces to Bakhmut. It is not true that the deployment of the troops’ units slows down preparations for the offensive.

Now the Russian forces have made several attempts. First, to advance to the city center, then to try to attack Khromove and Ivanivske. All these attacks were repelled. There were counterattacks in Ivanivske that significantly pushed the Russians away from the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut highway. Russia is still dispersing its forces, which reduces its offensive potential. Either they rely on reserves, which are limited in number, or they continue to have a low level of planning. If they attack along different lines from Bakhmut, there will be no optimistic result for Russia.

One offensive does not mean victory

The Ukrainian offensive will take place, because we have high hopes for the preparation of offensive actions. US Secretary of Defense Austin said that Ukraine has good chances to launch an offensive – the Russian forces are being depleted and foreign aid will help. Ukraine's Defense Minister Reznikov also talks about preparing an offensive and even gives a timeframe – April-May. I'm willing to bet that the main thing is not the timeframe, but the availability of trained personnel, armored vehicles, ammunition, long-range systems, and the completion of the coordination of units that can conduct offensive operations.

On the one hand, there are optimistic statements, and on the other hand, there are quite realistic things that the President of Ukraine says when he speaks that we are not quite ready for an offensive. So does Foreign Minister Kuleba, who says that we need to be quite calm about Ukraine's offensive and not link everything to it and say that it will be equal to victory. There may be several more such offensives, and Ukraine needs to prepare for different scenarios. Ukrainian General Staff has the potential to plan an offensive in a direction where the Russian troops do not know it and bring it to a result that will affect the political component related to determining the outcome of the military campaign.

Zaluzhnyi's statement that Ukraine needs F-16s emphasizes that air support is essential to minimize losses on the ground. I hope that there will be a solution that will compensate for the lack of aircraft. Perhaps strengthening air defense or increasing the number of long-range systems can partially compensate for the lack of a strike component. The offensive that is being prepared must be a perfect military art. I think it is born in close cooperation with the United States, where intelligence gathering about the enemy is based on a clear understanding of where the enemy is and how to find the right time for offensive action. Many things depend on good planning, and this is the basis of this offensive.

The Russian army is depleting its potential near Avdiivka

Russia is trying to encircle Avdiivka according to the Bakhmut scheme. An offensive from Opytne and Vodiane towards Sieverne on the one hand. On the other hand, intensified fighting from Krasnohorivka and beyond. There were intervals of offensive actions, but there was a statement by Colonel Dmytrashkivskyi who said that the Russian army was exhausted. This dynamic is no longer there. This allows Ukrainians to be optimistic about the events around Avdiivka. Even if Russia pulls up reserves, the Bakhmut scenario will be repeated, where it is possible to deter the Russians primarily with artillery. Russia is trying to continue using aviation here, and the trend remains.

Russia will react to half a million losses

The Russian losses are growing. This is an integral indicator which means that Ukraine is using artillery more efficiently, more accurately identifying Russia's location and the effectiveness of ground units in urban battles. In Bakhmut, for some time, the ratio of losses was 1 to 7. This is a significant indicator that has exhausted Russia's potential. It is clear that with such indicators, the enemy has no way to recover these losses. Therefore, the conclusions about the exhaustion of the Russians are correct.

Even in an authoritarian country, there is a pain threshold – if the losses approach 500,000, there will be a resonant echo in society. Propaganda cannot cope with this, although it will try to do it. Losses matter for the split in Russian society. Recruiting 400,000 volunteers is an unrealistic way. We can expect that Russia will try to use 120,000 conscripts who are completing a year of training from the previous draft. They may partially remain in the Russian army.

Russia is afraid to declare mobilization. With this approach, it is unlikely that the Russian Federation will conduct offensive actions in all five directions. One way or another, we can expect them to go on the defensive. This is a relatively good scenario, because when the Russians are on the offensive, it is easier to destroy them. When they are on the defensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will make more efforts.

Bombs that compensate for the lack of aircraft, the need for shells by the Ukrainian military, and Russian air defense

The use of an air strike component in the form of American JDAM guided bombs that can be carried by Ukrainian fighters is important. This bomb can weigh from 500 to 900 kg. It is 10 times more powerful than HIMARS, but with the same high accuracy. Increasing the number of JDAMs will partially compensate for the lack of aircraft.

Ammunition is perhaps the most important component of preparing for offensive actions to hold the current front line. The EU has decided that Ukraine will receive a million shells over the course of the year, but we need to emphasize that they are delivered in the next month and a half.  We need the shells right now. There are hopes that buying them outside the EU – in South Korea, Israel – could be an alternative way to increase ammunition stocks. This is what will allow AFU to fight now and be sure that we will have them during the offensive.

The more drones there are for various purposes, the weaker the Russian air defense will be. Jet drones are already reaching the territory of Moscow. The correct emphasis on the need for drones of different sizes, but in large numbers, fits well with the concept of combat operations. This is something that should continue to be supported by the General Staff, the Ministry of Defense, and the Ministry of Digital Transformation. The question is to remove the bureaucratic obstacles that still exist.