What fall of Assad regime could mean for Ukraine

Resurgam Telegram channel explains it.

Moscow's weakness exposed

The collapse of the Assad regime would shatter Moscow's image of endurance and strength. “Putin isn’t just losing influence; he’s losing the Soviet legacy,” the post reads. This visible failure would undermine Russia’s narrative that it can "wait out" its enemies, a crucial part of its global strategy. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has already highlighted Putin’s inability to sustain the regime, adding further pressure.

Diminished influence in the Middle East

Syria has long been Moscow’s strategic foothold in the Middle East, serving as its military base for operations across the region. Losing Assad would damage Moscow’s reputation as a dominant player. If Moscow can’t maintain its military presence or protect a dependent government, it will be perceived differently, analysts noted. This could lead to a loss of influence in the Middle East and Africa, including potential closures of its Latakia bases.

Logistical collapse of hybrid operations

Syria has served as a “gray hub” for Russian smuggling, hybrid warfare, and mercenary training, particularly through the Wagner Group. Weapons sent to Hezbollah, Houthis, and African clans acted as ‘black currency’ to bypass sanctions and expand influence, Resurgam explained. Losing Syria would disrupt these networks, limiting Moscow's ability to destabilize regions and train operatives for global conflicts, including in Ukraine.

Political fallout in the U.S.

The fall of Assad could also affect Tulsi Gabbard, a former U.S. Congresswoman with ties to the Syrian regime. Her connection to Assad has been a channel for informal communications with Iran, Hezbollah, and Moscow, said experts. With Assad’s value diminishing, Gabbard’s nomination for a top intelligence role under the Trump administration could face serious challenges, potentially ending her political ambitions.

Assad’s fall would be a blow to Moscow’s global strategy, weakening its foothold in the Middle East and reducing its ability to wage hybrid warfare. For Ukraine, this could mean less Russian meddling and a shift in global dynamics in its favor.