The capabilities of Israeli and American missile defense systems are well known there. But Iranians have shown that they are ready to escalate if provoked, as happened with the strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria, and they have the means to respond. They have earned additional sympathy points in the non-Western and particularly in the Muslim world, where neither Israel nor the US are well-liked.
"This doesn't signify a full-scale Middle Eastern war. At least not yet. However, any step could provoke it, and it's uncertain whether all such steps can be anticipated in advance."
For us, this means a massive shift of attention to the Middle East at a time when this attention is critically needed.
In the short term, Iran certainly won't be supplying weapons to Russia, as it needs them for itself. And the chances of the US aid package being approved may change, especially if a decision is made to separate the package into individual aid for us and Israeli assistance, under these conditions.
So, our own advantages and benefits are possible, although not obvious. However, the number one question is that the West is truly facing the prospect of conducting two major wars and the necessity to make many strategic decisions. And this is in conditions where the West is not prepared for two wars - neither mentally, nor politically, nor militarily.
In any case, both Western and non-Western leaders will now be looking into whether adjustments to current strategies are necessary, and if so, what exactly those adjustments should entail. And it is incumbent upon us to do everything and even more to ensure that the Iranian attack and its consequences do not become a 'black swan' event for us and our support.
About the author. Pavlo Klimkin, diplomat, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.