U.S. stance on Taiwan depends on Ukraine war outcome – journalist Portnikov

Journalist Vitaly Portnikov shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"The U.S. has always insisted that decisions on Taiwan be made peacefully. We don’t know how America will react if the situation escalates. Whether Donald Trump is willing to engage in a military conflict with China is a big question. The U.S. position will largely hinge on how the war in Ukraine ends. If, in America’s eyes, this war concludes on Russia’s terms, it will send China a clear signal that it can act as it pleases. Beijing may then decide that the U.S. respects the ‘right of the strong’ — and move to occupy Taiwan or parts of it, dictating its terms. In that case, Washington might back down. This scenario is already unfolding before our eyes," Portnikov said.

The concept of international law and peace is based on strong nations protecting weaker ones from aggression. But Trump’s approach is different: "Don’t provoke those who are stronger than you." This contradicts the foundations of international law.

"This logic led to two world wars. Trump follows this line of thinking, as seen in his statements about Ukraine. But history shows that weak nations rarely provoke strong ones. Czechoslovakia didn’t attack Germany, Poland didn’t attack either Germany or the Soviet Union, Ukraine didn’t attack Russia, and Taiwan doesn’t threaten China. Aggression always moves in the opposite direction. If the U.S. declares it won’t engage in such conflicts, it means weaker countries’ fates will be left to the will of the strong, who seek to occupy, annex, or destroy their political regimes," Portnikov warned.

• On Monday, March 10, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported 11 Chinese military aircraft and nine navy ships operating near the island. 
• Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump refused to say whether the U.S. would ever allow China to take control of Taiwan by force.