No one can predict what will happen after U.S. fires shot in Israel-Iran war — military expert

Defense Express military expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi shared his opinions on Espreso TV.

“The scenario of each war is unlikely to resemble the previous one, so it’s hard to draw any parallels. On the one hand, it is not clear at all what will happen with Iran's air defense and aviation. After all, Iran had three dozen MiG-29s. Did Iran allow them all to be bombed? But it could be possible,” he said.

Kyrychevskyi added that, on the other hand, Iran has prepared proxy groups in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq in case of such a war.

“Hezbollah decided to back out, while the Yemeni Houthis just declare solidarity and launch a rocket about once a week. As for Iraq, there might be some intrigue because of the pro-Iranian group, the Popular Mobilization Forces (up to 200,000 fighters). Trump even demanded that the Iraqi government bring them under control, since Iraq is supposed to be a U.S. ally in the Middle East, yet it operates so freely there. Whether Iran can raise this almost last strategic trump card to call for jihad and create problems of the same scale is uncertain. But it’s clear these forces will first have to fight against Iraq’s government forces,” the expert noted.

He emphasized that, on the other hand, if it turns out that the Islamic regime in Iran collapses much faster than anyone could have imagined, it could resemble the U.S. campaign against the Taliban in 2001.

“When the U.S. managed with just missile and air support, while the ground operations were carried out by proxy forces. This time, it could be IDF special forces. Right now, there is a lot of verbal escalation - I think no one can predict how things will go after America fires the first shot in this war between Israel and Iran. So far, it's just talk — ‘just wait until we show our super-powerful weapons in action.’ But there’s always the caveat: what if the GBU-57 bomb, meant to destroy Iran’s underground facilities, doesn’t work? What then?” Kyrychevskyi concluded.

• On June 18, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threatened that possible U.S. military intervention in the conflict with Israel would have serious, irreversible consequences. That same day, during a conversation with journalists, Donald Trump avoided directly answering questions about a potential U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.