Next Trump-Putin conversation: Why is Xi going to Moscow?

There’s no doubt the list of violations will be “terrible.” And tomorrow (today), certain Western media and useful idiots will be all over it.

This is all part of the “preparation” for Putin’s conversation with Trump, expected in the next 5–10 days — if it happens at all.

During this theoretically possible conversation, Putin, by all indications, will ask for additional consultations (read: stall for time and make new demands).

That said, Trump will likely demand a concrete ceasefire promise from Putin during the call because he fully understands Putin’s strategy.

And here we have one important "option." Putin knows he can agree to any ceasefire as long as it has no clear criteria or observation missions — just like with the energy truce. So, it’s entirely possible he’ll agree to another vague ceasefire that he has no intention of honoring. There's another option. He’ll blame Ukraine for everything and keep blocking any peace initiatives through endless consultations in Saudi Arabia. For now, he’s not ready to openly disrespect Trump (he fears a harsh response).

But in any scenario, let’s be clear: Putin has no intention of agreeing to a real ceasefire.

It’s also worth noting that China has stepped into the game, approving Xi’s visit to Moscow on May 9. China isn’t interested in ending the war right now — it benefits from a weakened Russia, which it sees as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with Trump. Putin, meanwhile, believes his biggest asset is playing mediator in China-U.S. talks, and that’s exactly what he plans to sell to Trump.

For now, I remain convinced that Putin will do everything possible to derail this round of negotiations. He believes that by carefully sabotaging it now, he can avoid the harshest sanctions while forcing Trump to shift focus elsewhere.

One last thing: for Trump to impose serious sanctions, he would first need to negotiate with the Saudis (and other Gulf monarchies) to increase oil production and redirect that oil to India — currently one of Russia’s biggest customers and a key U.S. partner in the region. This is doable, but it would take months. And that’s exactly why Putin knows he still has time to keep playing his game.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.