Simultaneously, he consistently claims that more coordination is necessary, indicating he'll be ready to vote on a mutually acceptable assistance option soon. But this proposed legislation always requires additional refinement, with elements to be removed, added, and modified to align with the majority of congressmen from both parties.
It's unclear why President Joe Biden, with over 50 years in American politics, fails to grasp this. Johnson publicly states one thing, acts differently, and plans another. For him, maintaining the position of speaker and securing a place in the new Congress is paramount, with the Ukrainian issue serving as a lever to enhance his reelection prospects.
A series of political objectives and challenges emerge. Michael Johnson values former US President Donald Trump. Johnson's re-election to the House of Representatives largely hinges on his alignment with Trump's agenda. Trump, in turn, relies on donors to fund his presidential campaign, potentially including Putin, if funds from Russia are funneled through front companies to support his re-election bid.
If Mike Johnson meets all of Donald Trump's demands, particularly regarding the blocking of aid to Ukraine, he stands a chance of being re-elected to Congress. Otherwise, he may need to negotiate with Democratic representatives to secure his position, especially as some fellow Republicans begin to criticize him as being too aligned with the Democratic Party.
Furthermore, if Johnson eventually brings bills concerning aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to a vote, it suggests a shift in his allegiance. He may now believe that Democrat Joe Biden has a greater chance of re-election than Republican Donald Trump.
In a time where the fate of Ukraine's existence, America's global leadership, and Western democracy are in jeopardy, it might be worth considering a move that Trump supporters couldn't anticipate. Granting Congressman Michael Johnson exactly what he desires ensures the continuation of his successful political career.
Many factors will influence the outcome. Notably, in early March, Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, aligned with the MAGA group led by Donald Trump, initiated the speaker of the US Congress's resignation. Congress has two legislative days to address Greene's proposal, likely very soon, during the House's session after recess on April 9.
It's important to note that Marjorie Taylor Greene aims to use the same procedure that previously ousted former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. Republican Matt Gaetz initiated a similar move, resulting in McCarthy's unprecedented removal from office in early October 2023. With time running out, Mike Johnson must decide how to act in this critical situation.
The Biden administration and Democrats may find it prudent to preemptively secure a political agreement with Mike Johnson. This entails Democratic representatives in Congress preventing MAGA radicals from ousting him as speaker and ensuring their support until the next congressional reelection. In return, Johnson commits to bringing a Senate-backed bill, allocating $95 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, with $60 billion earmarked for Kyiv, to a vote in the House of Representatives.
Furthermore, in the event of a Biden presidential victory, Democrats would promise Johnson a respected position in the new administration if he fails to return to Congress from the Republican Party. This assurance would underscore his stability regardless of the outcome.
Johnson's primary objective is to sustain his successful political trajectory. And the Democratic Party possesses all the means to assist him in achieving this goal.
About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.