Iran shuts down Strait of Hormuz

However, it remains unclear whether this decision will be finalized, as a parliamentary resolution alone is not sufficient. It is important that Iran's National Security Council has spoken out in favor of closing the Strait of Hormuz. For now, Tehran appears to be using the threat of such a move to pressure other countries. The naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have already stated that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed within hours.

Meanwhile, Iran’s National Security Council insists that no final decision has been made yet, though it could be taken at any moment deemed necessary by Iran. Still, the question arises, whom exactly does the Islamic Republic intend to punish with such a move?

Undoubtedly, the decision to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 20% of the world’s oil passes, will trigger a real energy shock that could lead to a prolonged global economic crisis. However, as with any such crisis, there will be countries that benefit and others that suffer significant losses. Among the winners will primarily be Russia.

If oil prices rise significantly, Russian leader Putin can expect a substantial boost to the Russian budget, enabling the continuation of the war with Ukraine and accelerated development of the country’s military-industrial complex.

From that point, Putin may disregard any proposals from U.S. President Donald Trump for a ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian front. His geopolitical ambitions will grow in line with fuel prices.

We know all this well from Russia’s recent history as well as from the history of the Soviet Union. Closing the Strait of Hormuz gives Putin a significant opportunity to advance his aggressive actions.

Another country that could benefit from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the United States. Although U.S. Vice President JD Vance said such a decision could be suicidal for Iran, in reality, the United States could also expect a significant rise in oil prices and, consequently, huge profits for its own budget. This, in turn, would improve the Republicans’ chances in the upcoming U.S. congressional elections.

From this perspective, it benefits Donald Trump to continue crisis actions regarding Iran to provoke this massive 21st-century energy crisis. However, there is also a country that will face serious problems if the energy crisis occurs — the People’s Republic of China. Rising oil prices will, first of all, place China in serious energy dependence on Russia, and possibly also on the United States, triggering a new real crisis in the Chinese economy.

After Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to effectively handle previous crises, this could call into question his authority as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China.

European countries will also face serious problems due to rising oil prices. This could even call into question Europe’s rearmament programs amid expectations of Russian aggression.

This comes at a time when Russia’s chances for aggressive actions, benefiting from the energy crisis’s impact on Europe, will increase with each passing month of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Countries like Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states will find themselves in a complicated situation.

On the other hand, they may benefit from further increases in oil prices, but at the same time, lose the most important route for transporting their own oil. Thus, it can be said that the interests of some countries now directly contradict the interests of others.

In Beijing, Chinese leaders may ask Iranian officials: for what sins is Iran punishing the Chinese leadership and creating new opportunities for the leadership of the United States and Russia?

China may side with those urging Iran not to take such radical measures, while Russia will do everything possible to escalate tensions in the Middle East and create special economic conditions for itself during years of confrontation not only with Russia but also with European countries. In this situation, if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is indeed launched, the People’s Republic of China may soon consider its own small victorious war to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis it will face.

This could bring us closer to a Third World War, which is clearly already on the agenda of world history and may become a reality in the coming years.

Of course, the United States itself is urging Tehran to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table to end Iran’s nuclear program and restore stability in the region.

However, it is still too early to say that Iranian leaders are leaning toward such a compromise with Washington or are ready to abandon uranium enrichment. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that Iran has not refused negotiations with the United States, even though Washington used force against Iran the very night after the Iranian foreign minister met with the foreign ministers of the European trio.

But we all remember well that Abbas Araghchi’s talks with his European counterparts yielded no real results. Similarly, Araghchi’s consultations with U.S. President’s special envoy Steve Witkoff only showed that Tehran does not intend to abandon its hardline stance. Iran plans to retain its right to uranium enrichment, which could eventually lead to Iran becoming a nuclear state.

However, Iran’s real responses regarding a realistic position in negotiations will not depend on Abbas Araghchi’s meetings with European foreign ministers or his talks with Steve Witkoff. Much will be decided tomorrow when the Iranian Foreign Minister is received by Russian leader Putin.

It is clear that the Russian leader will urge his Iranian counterpart to maintain a hardline stance for the same reasons we’ve discussed: high oil prices serve the interests of the Russian leadership, which continues to hope for the prolongation of the war with Ukraine.

And, of course, Putin, who claims that Iran’s underground facilities have not suffered any damage, might also be considering the option of transferring nuclear weapons from Russia to Iran, so that Iran can later use these warheads on its own delivery systems to strike Israel, while claiming they were produced domestically. Putin has enough cunning to orchestrate this massive nuclear conflict with unforeseeable consequences, though why unforeseeable, it will be the Third World War.

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About the author. Vitaly Portnykov, journalist and laureate of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.