Iran: not destroyed, but significantly damaged

Maxar recorded unusual activity at the deepest nuclear facility and dozens of trucks three days before the strike. Iran may have been preparing. Tehran also reported a fourth location a few weeks ago. Whether that’s true is unknown.

The key takeaway for Iran: missiles and allies don’t guarantee safety, only nuclear weapons do.

Netanyahu’s ratings are up. Even harsh critics are praising him.

In the short term, Trump will look like a winner, if Iran’s response is restrained.

Iran has plenty of reasons to hold back:

• China opposes rising oil prices and supports long-term U.S. stagnation in the region;
• few good options for a strong response;
• time and space are needed to assess damage and rebuild the path to nuclear weapons;
• awareness of failure, and the desire to pull the U.S. and Israel down with them;
• powerful neighbors unwilling to let energy routes be blocked;
• energy facilities untouched, and Iran still needs to sell oil to earn foreign currency.

All signs point to a limited response and a long war, but only if we follow the cold logic of our perspective. In Iran, Israel, and the U.S., the logic is clearly different.

Asian markets open soon and will give the first verdict on oil prices.

Markets seem used to living in constant volatility. What spooked them yesterday feels like calm today. But chasing profit through risk is normal business. So the early price reactions may not mean much.

NATO leaders have agreed to push spending to 5%, leaving room to talk about Middle East conflict, if they want to. Some don’t. Like South Korea’s president, who said today he won’t attend the summit.

Meanwhile, Gulf countries hosting U.S. bases are preparing for possible strikes.

Pakistan’s president spoke with Iran’s prime minister. Notably, Pakistan’s leader was the last foreign official to meet Trump before the strike, and might now use that to its advantage.

The world is shifting faster than we can process the present.

And we wait for the air raid to end to be able to sleep, and tomorrow get back in line to fight our own battle: for Ukraine’s future.

Source

About the author: Ahiia Zahrebelska, lawyer, former State Commissioner of the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (2015–2019), Director of EW Partnerships and Cooperation.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.