How potential India-Pakistan war may affect Ukraine, Europe

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

Military impact

If tensions escalate, both India and Pakistan are likely to boost arms stockpiles — especially Soviet-caliber ammunition, still widely used by both.

Ukraine has reportedly received such ammunition from Pakistan, via U.S. and U.K. mediation. But by late 2023, ties between Pakistan’s military and Washington cooled, with new government leaning toward China. As a result, “this probably led to a reduction or termination of ammunition supplies to Ukraine.”

India, meanwhile, may now be selling Soviet ammo through the Czech-led initiative that supplies Ukraine.

Economic impact

Fears that conflict would spike global oil prices may be overblown. War will increase consumption and, accordingly, the cost of oil, but actually, key infrastructure like refineries and ports could be hit, cutting demand.

“War is not about economic growth... It is about losses, uncertainty, interruption of supply chains,” the author notes. In general, a war between world economies will provoke a decrease in economic activity and increase the factor of global recession, which will put downward pressure on oil prices.

Geopolitical shifts

India’s defense sector is heavily reliant on Russian components. Since 2022, it’s tried to pivot to French and U.S. arms but still depends on Russian support, including maintenance. Plans to shift servicing to Poland and the Czech Republic have stalled due to those countries’ current defense commitments.

That raises questions: “How will Moscow, which is dependent on China, behave in the event of a conflict?” China is likely to back Pakistan, its major debtor, while the U.S. may keep a distance due to recent tensions with Pakistan.

The resulting power dynamics — Moscow-India-China-Pakistan — could create “a whole range of geopolitical dilemmas” for Europe.

India, despite its military strength, may find itself isolated. Pakistan already has backing from China and Turkey. India may seek European political support, trade, and arms deals, particularly if it loses access to Russian defense services.