Fall of Iranian regime could trigger migrant crisis in Europe – journalist Portnikov

Journalist Vitaly Portnikov shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"Another danger is the level of conflict and chaos that would follow, especially the refugee flows. That’s why President Macron keeps repeating that simply toppling the Iranian regime without a gradual shift is a catastrophic idea. Not because he’s a fan of Ayatollah Khamenei, but because he knows France would bear the brunt of the refugee wave. He won’t be able to stop it. And that could mean Marine Le Pen riding into the Élysée Palace on a white Iranian horse. She’s already getting ready to mount it, so to speak. This is the reality with a new, major migrant crisis in Europe," he said.

Portnikov stressed this is a serious issue, and there's no clear plan on how to handle it.

"On one hand, this regime is awful. On the other, no one knows how to deal with it. There are lots of problems at every side. But at the same time, we can’t just say: ‘Well, let’s not interfere, let them stay in power.’ Keeping them in power leads straight to nuclear weapons. They’re part of a real anti-Western axis, Russia, Iran, and North Korea with the shadow of Xi Jinping hanging over it all. It really creates huge problems for everyone," he said.

He added that while Trump may be unpredictable, this is a major challenge he has to face.

"And that’s why he keeps saying: ‘No one knows what I’ll do’ to keep Iran uncertain. He hopes that uncertainty will push them to sign a deal that ends uranium enrichment. That would be one way to stop it. But again, how can Trump manage that if Putin, who once promised to mediate between Iran and Israel, is urging Iran to keep enriching uranium? You see, Putin is actually provoking Iran," Portnikov said.

The journalist believes Putin wants Iran to stay armed and the crisis to deepen.

"And he wants oil prices to go up as a result. But prices aren’t rising much, notice that? Why? Because this is all happening during a global economic crisis. No one’s investing, waiting for the next disaster. So oil supply drops, but so does demand. No one knows what tomorrow brings. Without industrial investment, oil prices won’t climb. There are a million questions here, all complicated. Everyone reacts however they can," he concluded.