Baltic States, Poland brace for Russian threat: but are they ready?

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko discussed the issue, Obozrevatel reports.

Back in 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, these countries voiced concern. Now, amid growing tensions and ongoing war in Ukraine, that concern has turned into concrete steps to boost defense.

Experts warn, however, that these moves may be too little, too late.

If Russia gets even a year of ceasefire, it could prepare a force big enough to strike EU countries like Poland and the Baltics, the analysis claims. Estimated figures suggest Russia could deploy up to 100,000 troops, 500 tanks, and 1,500 armored vehicles — enough to punch through defenses and potentially capture the Baltic states or seize the Suwalki Gap, the narrow land link between Poland and Lithuania.

Some critics argue that Russian forces are struggling to advance in Ukraine — so why fear a quick push into NATO territory? The answer lies in preparation. “From Avdiivka to Pokrovsk, Russians were crawling through layered Ukrainian defenses,” the analyst writes. “But Poland and the Baltics have nothing like that. No deep fortifications, no wartime readiness.”

At present, these countries lack defense lines stretching even 20–25 km from the border — the basic depth for first and second defensive layers. What's more, Russia could mask an attack by staging drills in Belarus, quickly assembling strike forces just across the border.

Poland, for example, would struggle to form defensive lines in a month without declaring martial law. If an attack came, traffic jams and fleeing civilians could block military movement. "Knowing Russian tactics, there’s a high chance they'll strike roads and refugee convoys with missiles and drones,” the author warns.

Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia face similar challenges — plus another complication: significant Russian-speaking populations that may sympathize with the Kremlin.

For now, the risk of a Russian invasion remains low, mainly because of the heavy toll of the war in Ukraine. But the danger isn't gone. If the Kremlin manages to negotiate a pause on its terms, it will rebuild — and quickly become a serious threat to Europe again.

“Therefore, the answer to the question of whether European neighbors are ready for a probable Russian invasion is quite simple and unambiguous — no,” Kovalenko concludes.