Without aid to Ukraine, the White House holds no cards

For Putin, Ukraine was merely a convenient starting point—an “easy target” whose capture (in those infamous three days) was supposed to pave the way for tough negotiations with Europe and the U.S. on new global rules.

Brand-new Russian military bases in western Ukraine, right on the borders with Poland and Hungary, were meant to strengthen this negotiating position. Europe, in Putin’s logic, would either surrender without a fight or be forced to wage war on its own territory. Ukraine, in this scenario, was merely collateral damage—a minor detail in a grand strategic plan.

These ambitions have not changed since February 2022 and remain relevant today. The Kremlin continues to talk about the "need to address the root causes of the conflict." Melitopol, Vovchansk, or Bakhmut were never Russia’s end goals. Moscow would not have crippled its own economy, thrown hundreds of thousands of lives into a meat grinder, and become a global pariah just for a few districts on the map.

This is why sanctions, tariffs, and diplomatic gestures alone cannot force Putin to stop. They only have power when combined with real military aid to Ukraine. Only in this form—as part of a comprehensive pressure package—can they make the Kremlin seek a way out.

Threats from the new U.S. administration to "strengthen sanctions" in response to Putin “disappointing” them are not capable of stopping the war. They can't even motivate the Russians to agree to a temporary ceasefire.

Actions and statements from Donald Trump's team indicate they truly want to end this war as soon as possible. But if that is the case, the only way to achieve it is by ramping up arms and equipment supplies to Ukraine. Only such a strategy can make Putin doubt his victory and bring him to the negotiation table.

Without this, as they say, the players in the White House simply have no cards.

Source

About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.