Why is Russia pushing to set legal precedent for occupation?

Still, there’s a clear interconnection here: the accusations that Ukraine is saying something publicly, while simultaneously being pressured to give silent consent, suggest an attempt to shift responsibility for the decision in the future. Because this isn’t just about Crimea, it’s about the overall approach.

Let me explain. In the context of halting the war and moving toward peace (which could be a long process, given that Russia occupies four regions plus Crimea), the postwar conditions, especially the economic ones, for both Ukraine and Russia are crucial. These conditions will determine future prospects and development, which in turn will influence the chances of regaining the occupied territories.

"If the U.S. recognizes Crimea as "Russian," lifts sanctions, and paves the way for Russia to export its resources, then Russia, with not only Crimea but also four other Ukrainian regions under occupation, will begin its return to global politics via trade. And the U.S. will say: what are you blaming us for? Ukraine agreed to a deal in which the U.S. recognized Crimea as “Russian.”"

This doesn’t mean that negotiations involving concessions, like those proposed by the U.S., shouldn’t take place. But they should follow the framework previously outlined by Marco Rubio: a two-stage plan involving a ceasefire and a path to peace. Concessions could apply to the ceasefire stage, such as the de facto line of separation, the security of territories along that line, and possible cooperation within the ceasefire framework (primarily at sea).

However, lifting sanctions over Crimea and recognizing it as “Russian” essentially sets a legal precedent for the future, legitimizing Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territories.

It’s hard to say what’s more at play here: Russia’s brazenness or the shortsightedness of certain members of the American negotiating team.

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About the author. Olesya Yakhno, Ukrainian journalist and political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.