Why doesn’t Trump sanction Russia?

1. On the positive side. It appears to be part of Trump's negotiation strategy: either you agree to some format of peace, or the promised 500% tariffs on all goods from countries buying Russian oil, as stated by Lindsey Graham, will be imposed. Formally, a similar logic has been applied to Canada and Mexico.

2. On the negative side. The U.S. and Russia are on the verge of signing a "rare earth metals" agreement, which would not only allow American capital to enter Russia's energy sector but also establish trading houses for selling Russian sanctioned goods, primarily in the EU (Dmitriev’s visit to Washington is directly related to this). This is a complex process requiring EU approval. However, by imposing tariffs on EU goods, Trump now has more room to maneuver.

3. I still believe that Putin will do everything to prolong the war, but his room for maneuver has now narrowed. His main bargaining chip remains the natural resources deal. His bet on being needed as a mediator in U.S.-China negotiations is rapidly losing ground.

In the current situation, Putin faces an "either-or" choice, and with high probability, he will side with China as the lesser evil for himself (in short: he wants the war to continue and fears the 30% of ultra-patriots in the post-war period).

4. The EU’s strategy of involving Ukraine in the EU-U.S. negotiations remains fundamental for Ukraine, but its room for maneuver has also narrowed. The EU had assumed that as long as the war continued, Trump wouldn’t impose tariffs on Europe. Now, the game will be about tariff removal, and Ukraine has shifted from being a trump card to a strong but non-decisive card (Hungary and Slovakia will fuel this issue). Nevertheless, this remains Ukraine’s key diplomatic play. Once again: the EU will be negotiating tariffs, security, and support for Ukraine—they are bound to do so in the coming months.

5. We must also consider the high probability of war in Iran. This scenario exists and is, in many ways, useful for Trump. A swift and decisive bombing campaign would neutralize counter-sanctions efforts and attempts to form anti-American coalitions. While war in Iran is still just a theoretical option, if it materializes, global attention will shift away from Ukraine.

For now, talking about weakening—let alone a significant weakening—of Ukraine’s position would be misleading. The game has simply become more complicated.

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About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.