Trump's Congress speech: talks yet to begin

1. A second round of the rare earth metals saga awaits, which seems likely to be successful. Only after that will negotiations de facto begin. Once again: the negotiations, in essence, have not yet started.

2. The first fundamental issue is the line of demarcation, which should become the new de facto border. This does not suit Russia. Therefore, the Russians will need to delay (or disrupt) the negotiations. Their strategy, from the very beginning, will remain unchanged — trying to disrupt everything using Ukraine (I’ve been writing and speaking about this for six months).

3. The Russians will try to expand the issue of Ukraine, linking it to Iran, North Korea, and their attempts to hold onto Syria and Libya. They will play the global card (possibly even sacrificing Venezuela, for example), which gives them some room. But at the same time, this could strain Israel and Turkey. Ukraine needs to look for ways to involve its potential allies in this game. It’s no coincidence that the Turks participated in the conference in London.

4. Ukraine is part of the EU-U.S. negotiations. Europe will link the agreements on not imposing 25% tariffs on its goods, its own security, and European guarantees for Ukraine as a whole. This will take time. And Europe definitely does not need a blitzkrieg. I repeat: Ukraine is a significant element of the negotiations, not the only issue.

5. China will keep waiting. Any attempts to engage with Beijing now will be doomed to failure.

6. Once again, the negotiations, in essence, have not yet started de facto. And Trump has not yet faced the Russian demands. The Russians have placed all their bets on the financial proposal voiced in Riyadh and on the expectation that as a result of the first round, Ukraine will completely lose its agency (through the disruption of the negotiations).

7. The Russians missed the mark in terms of Europe's support for Ukraine. Right now, it is crucial to soberly assess every step and its consequences (among other things, we must always keep in mind Trump's personal animosity toward Zelenskyy). Society is heated by what happened last Friday at the White House. But we will have to take a cold shower. The hardest negotiations are just beginning. And there are too many players who do not want them to end quickly.

And finally, we can talk a hundred thousand times about Trump's undemocratic turn. But one important fact remains unchanged: the United States is still the strongest country in the world. And it is now their decision that will determine Ukraine's future. Just don't forget that.

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About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

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