Trump-Xi meeting may reshape world into two major powers

His latest tweet claiming that Ukraine can reach its 1991 borders has caused a huge stir among Western experts, who see it as a major victory.

But, as my late grandmother used to say, “if it seems so — cross yourself.” Because things could go as stated, or they could go the opposite way, not for nothing is Witkoff heading back to Moscow soon.

After Trump’s speech at the UN General Assembly yesterday, I have very bad feelings about the reality the current resident of the White House is living in.

"But there are political realities within the United States. Indeed, the congressional elections represent a window of opportunity, opening up several potential scenarios. However, this is not what Trump wanted or wants — it is what he is forced to do to avoid a total loss in Congress."

One such scenario is the chance that the Trump administration will now give Ukraine a free hand to demonstrate its capabilities on the battlefield, with corresponding arms supplies (purchased through Europe).

It is no coincidence that President Zelenskyy, ahead of his meeting with Trump, provided him with figures on liberated territories. Prior to this, Ukraine had conducted two (some say three) inspections assessing the potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and during Kellogg’s visits, military discussions outweighed political ones.

The second scenario is that if Ukraine begins to advance and inflict noticeable damage on Russia, it is possible that the White House will come to understand that sanctions could actually force Putin to stop, at least at the current front line. But that still remains to be seen. I doubt they will be implemented this year, given that carrying out the first step will require time.

There is a third factor related to China. The Xi-Trump meeting is scheduled for October. This will be a landmark meeting, as it could establish a model of a multipolar world, but one in which there are still two hegemons (rather than three or four) pursuing policies based on competition rather than military confrontation, carving out resource bases from third countries and influence over Europe, Russia, India, Turkey, and smaller players.

Accordingly, this meeting could solidify a renewed mutual interest in both sides ending the destabilization of the already fragile global economy. The first step in this process would have to be stopping the military actions in Ukraine.

Source

About the author. Viktor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board at the Institute of World Politics.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.