Russia stepping up threats to pressure West, deter aid to Kyiv — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information.

On April 17, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Russia would consider any missile strike using German Taurus missiles on its territory as Germany’s direct participation in the war in Ukraine.

Zakharova also threatened Estonia, echoing a recent warning by Russian Foreign Intelligence Service head Sergey Naryshkin that Poland and the Baltic states would be “the first to suffer” in the event of “NATO aggression” against Russia or Belarus.

ISW explains that the Kremlin has repeatedly used similar threats against Western countries sending military aid to Ukraine as part of a broader reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing Western decision-making and deterring support for Kyiv. This includes nearly identical threats toward the U.S. over allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with ATACMS.

“Kremlin likely seeks to portray European efforts to strengthen European and Ukrainian defense capabilities as provocative, in order to pressure European countries into self-restraint from providing further military aid to Ukraine or bolstering European defense,” analysts note.

• U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington would receive a response from Moscow this week regarding proposals for a ceasefire in Ukraine.