Trump, Putin deeply divided on Ukraine war's roots and resolution

1. Putin is not ready to give up his relationship with the Trump administration.

He repeatedly shows contempt for Europe but responds to Trump just enough to keep the American president interested in the process, as it still does not seem completely hopeless to him.

2. Putin and Trump have fundamental disagreements about the nature of the war and its resolution.

Putin sees the war as part of a global confrontation with the West. For him, ending the war is only possible through direct negotiations with the West, represented by the U.S. Hence, all the demands for a “new Yalta” and a “security architecture” to be discussed in a one-on-one meeting between Trump and Putin.

In contrast, Trump does not recognize any Russian claims to spheres of influence. His maximum goal is to “end the war at any cost,” including significant concessions from Ukraine. However, no one even begins to talk about handing over Europe to Moscow’s control.

"Putin did not start the war to occupy Melitopol. In the current setup, he has no chance of reaching an agreement with Trump. Trump wants to exit this situation with minimal losses, demonstrating his effectiveness, but not by defeating the West."

3. China appears to be trying to become an ally of Europe in its tariff conflict with Trump.

After talks with Xi, the President of Brazil flew to Moscow to persuade Putin to cease fire. This was apparently a joint initiative by Beijing and Brasília. It ended in humiliation: the Brazilian president was not even received by Putin, only a phone call. Over a thousand kilometers of travel for a call.

"This hints that China has sided with the European coalition and is trying to stop the war. Putin ignored this signal, expecting Beijing would not dare to take tough action. Whether China will respond remains unclear, but the atmosphere of bilateral relations is changing."

4. Putin will not meet with Zelenskyy in any format.

Even a trilateral meeting with Trump is unacceptable for him, as it would effectively destroy the already weak ideology of the "special military operation," where "neo-Nazis" seized power in Kyiv and, led by the "illegitimate Zelenskyy," took ordinary Russians hostage who were "convinced they are Ukrainians."

5. Europe has once again received proof of Putin’s inadequacy.

This should have given rise to the conclusion that this war is existential for the Europeans themselves, and we have heard quite a lot of this in public statements. But despite all the right words, we see the EU suspending the special regime of trade relations with Ukraine, which actually returns tariff rates to levels that make Ukrainian exports less competitive in European markets. This could be seen as a minor issue, but when words contradict actions, it is a sign of inadequacy among Europeans themselves. It is good that they do a lot of good for the majority, but not treating Ukraine as a full partner harms Europe, as it turns Ukrainians against the EU.

The Istanbul "negotiation round" is not yet over, and further developments are expected in the coming days. But the interim results we have today give grounds for cautious optimism.

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About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.