Peace talks: this week’s key takeaways

Negotiations: key points of the week.

1. Steve Witkoff's statements about referendums in occupied territories and discussions on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) — this marks the beginning of talks on the demarcation line. To reiterate, this is just the start, and for now, it seems this issue won’t be discussed in Saudi Arabia. It will be a subject of discussions in the Putin-Zelenskyy-Trump special representative triangle. But once again, this is the start of negotiations, not an ultimatum to Ukraine.

2. Prospects of a Putin-Trump meeting — The Kremlin estimates this could happen in "several months," while Washington has not mentioned it at all. Such a meeting is only possible if real agreements are reached. However, there is one catch: Trump thinks in terms of bilateral negotiations, and he could (still very theoretically) meet with Putin earlier if he believes it would bring a quick result. But for now, the Russians are slowing down the processes while Trump is trying to speed them up. However, there are no intermediate results at the moment, aside from the "quasi-ceasefire."

3. Despite Russia's attempts to expand its maneuvering space through Iran, the key "trigger" issue for the U.S. is a major energy deal with Russia and more. It’s important to note that the essence of this deal is not only about the U.S. returning to energy extraction and Arctic exploration. The core of the agreement lies in the creation of trading houses that will sell sanctioned goods, primarily in the EU. Simply put, American companies (the same trading houses) would earn billions annually in exchange for lifting sanctions on Russia. The critical question here is how to sway Europe into agreeing to this deal. Witkoff’s statement, suggesting that he sees no intention from Putin to start a war in Europe, is part of this campaign. While still in its early stages, the key negotiations regarding this matter have not yet begun.

4. Putin's strategy remains unchanged - delay and try to derail negotiations using Ukraine. This is why, this week, we witnessed two devastating attacks on Odesa and Kropyvnytskyi.

In Putin’s logic, these strikes are intended, on the one hand, to demoralize Ukrainians and increase political turbulence, and on the other, to test how Trump will react to such actions. Trump is showing that he is only interested in negotiations. This is a crucial point to consider when analyzing the motivations of both sides.

5. The Russian sabotage of the gas pipeline in Sudzha should be seen, on one hand, as an attempt by Russia to impose the idea of Ukraine's untrustworthiness, but this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Earlier, I mentioned the big deal. The Russians understand that if Ukraine’s gas transportation system (GTS) is not part of this deal, the U.S. interest in Ukraine will significantly decrease in the future. That’s why they are deliberately trying to exclude our GTS as a key logistical asset from this agreement. This is, in fact, a very important fact for future negotiations. However, it seems that we are underestimating this big deal. Although, I truly hope I’m mistaken here.

6. Our problem is that we currently don't have strong enough trump cards in hand. However, the advantage is that we remain one of the three main parts of the Europe-U.S. negotiations. (Remember, aside from Ukraine, Europe is also pushing for two things from the U.S.: the avoidance of tariffs on goods and maintaining a significant U.S. presence in European security.)

7. We must remember that Trump is de facto obsessed with negotiations. We shouldn’t overreact to every statement made. We need to focus on how to “guide” Trump’s behavior in a month or two, when it becomes clear that Putin is manipulating him. For now, we must remember: the victory is to preserve our maximum agency in order to play our own game in the future.

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About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.