NATO summit to showcase U.S.–Europe unity

First, Ukraine wants to stop the hot phase of the war and to have security guarantees in order to be able to restore and strengthen itself from within, as well as to understand the prospects for a long-term security architecture, taking into account the constant risk from Russia. At the same time, it is important for us to show that it is not Ukraine, but Russia that does not want a result, which is why Ukraine participates in negotiations even when we know in advance that no ceasefire agreement will be reached, as was the case in Istanbul.

Russia uses ceasefire talks to impose capitulatory demands. In other words, it cannot withdraw from negotiations but refuses to abandon its push to legitimize so-called “root causes.” This means the stalling will continue. Under the guise of discussing ceasefire terms, Russia is trying to mask its usual blackmail tactics.

The issue of a buffer zone is already being presented by Russia as a demand for Ukraine to withdraw troops from its own territory — an absurd notion Ukraine immediately rejected.

For Russia, it’s important not only to keep Trump from imposing sanctions but also to prevent him from supporting strong language in resolutions or communiqués (including from the G7), as a way to restrain Europe as well.

The U.S. wants, if not a quick, then at least some kind of result that can be presented as progress toward peace. Thus, the very fact of a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations, even knowing that Russia deliberately sent a low-level delegation, was already framed as a step toward peace.

Europe, on the other hand, understands the long-term risks it faces and therefore sees the need for a long-term vision and systemic decisions, with Ukraine as part of the region’s overall security. That’s why Europe is so wary of any capitulatory scenarios for Ukraine — they would simply pave the way for a possible new phase of war.

The approaches of the U.S. and Europe differ now, but the situation may change. In this regard, the NATO summit at the end of June will be a key test of the Alliance’s unity and whether the U.S. and Europe will align their views on security challenges and responses.

Negotiations will continue — on humanitarian issues and discussing the line of separation. Meanwhile, other processes will also be underway. Both Ukraine and Russia will be strengthening their defense capabilities.

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About the author. Olesya Yakhno, Ukrainian journalist, political scientist

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.