Russia's missile attack on Sumy: Putin's double blackmail

Morally, everything is clear and obvious.

Politically, it's more complicated. Both the strike on Sumy and the attack on Kryvyi Rih are similar "symbolic" events, a deliberate and planned “raising of the stakes” by Putin. 

What is the goal? We can discuss versions here. I would suggest that this is pressure on Trump. The message is something like this: “Do you want to stop this quickly because you are being pressured by the morally outraged? Then give me more. Because it is not in your interest to put too much pressure on Russia and demonstrate your weakness as a person who, despite promises, can do nothing.”

If this is the case, all the expected statements from Western leaders that "this must end as soon as possible" align with Putin’s goal: they create additional pressure, but... not on Putin (what can you expect from him? He's a constant in this), but on Trump. Since these reactions are quite predictable, I think that this was the Kremlin's intention.

It's like something out of a Hollywood action movie: Putin is steering towards a "head-on collision" and is showing no signs of flinching or backing down. On the contrary, he’s even "increasing speed." So, it’s up to Trump to flinch and swerve. This just happened with tariffs, so why not here?

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Since 2014, Putin has remarkably successfully employed a double-edged form of blackmail against the West: he shows he’s not afraid of military confrontation (the West is), and he’s willing to risk destabilizing the situation in Russia, confident that he can handle all the challenges (the West, remembering 1991, is not ready to take such risks).

Meanwhile, Trump is currently demonstrating his unpredictability to the whole world... except for Russia. Here, he’s surprisingly predictable and, in the worst traditions of Biden, isn’t making "any sudden moves." It’s now interesting to see if Putin has accurately calculated Trump’s future behavior.

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About the author. Oleksiy Panych, philosopher, member of the Ukrainian Center of the International PEN Club, blogger

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