Israeli strike on Iran and Ukraine

This is the beginning of a large-scale war without a ground invasion. Iran’s nuclear program was a national idea, so its response will be massive and prolonged. In the coming months, Israel and Iran will relentlessly bomb each other.

This war marks the end of Donald Trump’s “peace efforts” and becomes yet another story in which Putin has betrayed him. I’ve already written that the possibility of reaching a deal with Iran and Putin’s support in that matter was a parallel story to ours, but they went hand in hand.

"Putin promised Trump support for this deal, so despite all the failures on our front, Trump continued to hold out hope on the Iran track."

According to the deal’s concept, Russia would take Iran’s enriched uranium for storage and return it if the U.S. violated the agreement. But in reality, Putin never intended to help Trump — he always aims to "undermine the West," and in this case, he succeeded. When it comes to Iran, any deal that would open Iranian oil reserves to the global market and lower prices is not in Putin’s interest.

All of this leaves Trump with no choice: he has to get tough and start applying pressure. He has already voiced support for Israel, even though just a month ago, he was threatening to cut off all aid. The same approach will likely apply to us soon. The pause in prisoner and body exchanges will end, and I believe Trump will take the only realistic position: to pressure Putin. The first signals came yesterday from “the voice of reason,” Lindsey Graham, who revived his sanctions bill this week and made harsh statements against Putin. He usually does that only when Trump begins to shift in the same direction.

What does the war in the Middle East mean for Ukraine?

Cons

1. Rising oil prices. There will be a temporary spike, though no real factors support a sustained increase. Oil will likely return to around $60 per barrel within a month. Still, during this short period, the Russians will be loudly boasting.
2. Air defense missiles. The Israel-Iran war will be fought with missiles, drones, and airstrikes. All of this will require a large number of air defense missiles, which may be redirected there instead of to us.

Pros

1. Another war removes appeasement of Putin from the agenda. On the contrary, it proves that the West must take a strong stance. This changes how we’re perceived, since today we have the most experienced army in the world in modern warfare.
2. This war accelerates Trump's transformation into a hawk.

Source

About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, and publicist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.