EU–U.S. deal signed: what it means for Ukraine

1. The U.S. (under Trump) hesitated for a long time about how to deal with Russia. Two opposing strategies were on the table: one aimed to completely push Russia out of global energy markets, especially the EU. The other (Dmitriev’s proposal) envisioned the U.S. becoming a mediator in the trade of Russian energy on sanctioned markets.

The agreement with the EU shows that the U.S. has decided to reject Dmitriev’s proposal (at least for now) and is moving toward gradually shrinking Russia’s energy influence. The EU’s pledge to buy $600 billion worth of American energy means a rejection of Russian gas and oil. And this is just the beginning.

2. Right now, as I’ve written and said many times, the key factor for Ukraine is the situation in India. Logically, the U.S. should pressure New Delhi to switch from Russian oil to Middle Eastern supplies. If this happens, Russia’s oil revenues could drop by about a quarter. That, in turn, would force Putin to choose between drastically cutting infrastructure and certain social projects to increase military spending, or freezing military expenditures at 2025 levels.

3. After wrapping up talks with the EU, Trump is entering negotiations with China, where the EU is now guaranteed to follow Washington’s lead. These talks are crucial for Ukraine, as they will shape not only the global trade system for the next decade, but also determine whether the war in Ukraine will end or continue.

4. Both Washington and Beijing want Russia to remain a weak state with predictable, manageable leadership. The U.S. seems to have accepted that it’s currently impossible to pull Russia away from China. A severely weakened Russia, dependent on Beijing, its buyer of last resort but one that offers no new technology or modern industrial development, may be an acceptable outcome for the U.S.

5. I can hypothesize that Putin's political future will largely depend on his ability to reach an agreement on the Ukrainian issue. However, during the U.S.-China negotiations, Ukraine will be presented with fairly tough conditions for a “compromise.”

6. The time frame for the U.S.-China negotiations is at least the next 6–7 months.

7. The main question that remains unanswered is what will happen if Putin refuses to compromise and announces mobilization (approximately 300,000 people). This option is still on the table. Globally, this will cause him to suffer a major defeat in the geopolitical game. But it could drastically change the situation on the front lines.

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About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

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